505
FXUS62 KRAH 200758
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of convectively-amplified disturbances in moist,
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread and interact with a surface
front that will remain nearly stationary over central NC through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 356 AM Saturday...

The lead MCV which induced stratiform rain over much of central NC
early this morning has shifted off to our east.  Lingering light
rain over northern areas will continue to dissipate through sunrise.
Aloft, a strong short-wave will eject through the Mid-
Atlantic/northeast through tonight. An associated strong mid-level
impulse currently over Alabama/Georgia will ride along the
Appalachians inducing convection across our area this afternoon.

As the short-wave ejects northeastward, increasing mid-level flow
will induce upwards of 25 to 35 kts of shear across the northern
half of our CWA.  As such, a few organized/stronger storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening (primarily over the
Piedmont/Coastal Plain).  Forecasted hodographs are generally
straight and thus any stronger storm that develops would primarily
be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. The only
caveat is that some guidance suggests sfc backing of winds could be
possible across the Piedmont/Coastal Plain later today. As such,
there is a non-zero chance for a supercell or a two to develop.
While tornadoes wouldn`t be expected, any mid-level rotation could
overcome poor mid-level lapse rates and promote the potential for
isolated hail. Overall though, the main severe weather potential
today remains localized damaging wind gusts.

Similar to recent days, given the persistent, anomalously moist
airmass, as well as the potential for west-east training cells,
isolated flash flooding will be possible. Best chances for flash
flooding would likely be along the NC/VA border, where due to recent
rainfall, 1 hr FFG is only about 1 to 2 inches.  HREF rain rate
exceedance probabilities peak just north of the border in AKQ`s CWA,
but the actual heavier rain rates could easily slip into our
northeast instead.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the south. Overnight
lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Saturday...

The front that is lingering over the region appears as if it should
spend most of the day south of the forecast area. While all
locations still have likely pops in the forecast, did bump up
southern counties to categorical being closer to the focus area of
the front. Highs should again be close to normal, ranging from 85 to
90. Conditions will remain muggy, although even with high humidity
values, temperatures in the 80s should minimize the amount of triple
digit heat index coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
As of 305 AM Friday...

There is minimal change to the long term forecast. A longwave trough
will extend from Quebec south into the Gulf of Mexico, and warm,
moist advection will persist across much of the eastern United
States. Will continue with likely pops during this time period. In
addition, heavy rainfall rates means that isolated flash flooding
will continue to be a threat across the entire area despite the area
being in a drought. Highs should remain near climatology in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 201 AM Saturday...

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to fill across central NC this
morning, persisting through mid to late morning.  Additional showers
and a few storms will be possible later this afternoon which could
produce brief sub-VFR conditions at all terminals. A few stronger
thunderstorm gusts could also be possible especially at KRDU and
KRWI.  Otherwise, expect MVFR to IFR stratus to sock back in later
tonight.

Beyond 06Z Sunday: Showers and storms will continue Sunday into
early next week.  Early morning fog and stratus will be possible
each day as well. The wet pattern will continue into middle of next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020

July 21: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1932 KFAY: 80/2017

July 22: KRDU: 78/2011

July 23: KRDU: 78/2011

July 24: KRDU: 79/2011 KFAY: 79/1945

July 25: KFAY: 78/2016

July 26: KGSO: 76/2016 KRDU: 77/2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Luchetti
CLIMATE...RAH