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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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537 FXUS62 KRAH 191753 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 152 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The front that moved into the region yesterday will remain nearly stationary across the state through the weekend, resulting in unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM Friday... Some minor tweaks were made to the forecast for the afternoon and evening. The morning analysis revealed the front has sagged south a bit from the overnight period. It is currently draped mainly south of US-64, south of the Triangle and pushing into the central Coastal Plain. Dewpoint values are only marginally lower behind the front, with some upper 60s in the Triad and toward Roxboro. The main distinguishable feature is the NE wind shift and slight clearing in low cloudiness north of the front. Morning spotty showers have developed along and south of the boundary, mainly so far across the Coastal Plain near Rocky Mount. The latest 12z HRRR aligns closely with the 00z HREF, showing scattered showers and storms becoming more prevalent by the afternoon and early evening. CAMs suggest coverage of storms could develop just about anywhere over central NC. However, it does appear a more focused area of storms would be favored across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain as the models continue to suggest the front slowly shifting a tad further south before settling near the Sandhills this afternoon and possibly near the SC border this evening. Severe threat still looks quite limited, if any, with shear stronger north of the front. The main factor appears to still be isolated flash flood potential with still above- normal PWs and slow storm motions for training potential, focused across the SE near the front. Plenty of low clouds persist, especially along/south of the boundary, so highs might be a tad lower than expected. Though we expect these clouds to break up or mix out with heating. Expect low to mid 80s along/north of US-64 and mid/upper 80s south of that boundary. Storm coverage may slightly diminish after sunset with loss of heating, before another batch develops upstream from a disturbance over MS/AL/GA. That shortwave is forecast to reach western NC and eastern TN later tonight and overnight. Coverage of storms should be highest over the western/southern Piedmont, tracking ENE overnight into the Triad and mainly west of US-1. This batch will also run into nocturnal stabilization, so weakening of the storm cells are possible by early Sat. But elevated instability and the mid-level energy should favor at least 30-60 percent PoPs west of US-1 overnight. Lows should generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 159 AM Friday... Aloft, a strong short-wave will eject through the Mid- Atlantic/northeast through Saturday night. An associated strong mid- level impulse will ride along the Appalachians inducing convection across our area Saturday. Showers and storms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning as the impulse moves northeast over our western areas. Guidance suggests the sfc front will remain stalled across our western to northern Piedmont, which should provide additional sfc forcing for afternoon showers/storms. As the short- wave ejects eastward, increasing mid-level flow will induce upwards of 25 to 35 kts of shear across the northern half of our CWA. As such, a few organized/stronger storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, with isolated damaging wind gusts the biggest concern. Similar to recent days, given the persistent, anomalously moist airmass, as well as the potential for west-east training cells, isolated flash flooding will be possible Saturday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the south. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... There is minimal change to the long term forecast. A longwave trough will extend from Quebec south into the Gulf of Mexico, and warm, moist advection will persist across much of the eastern United States. Will continue with likely pops during this time period. In addition, heavy rainfall rates means that isolated flash flooding will continue to be a threat across the entire area despite the area being in a drought. Highs should remain near climatology in the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 152 PM Friday... Generally VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. A stationary front is draped along/south of the northern terminals (RDU/RWI). Convection has developed along and south of the boundary. The front and resultant outflow boundaries will favor the best chance of storms in the first few hours at RDU/RWI and then into the early to late evening at FAY as resultant outflows and the front slightly sags southward. At GSO/INT, confidence was low to introduce thunder given these terminals north of the boundary. Daytime scattered storms should weaken between 00-03z. A secondary batch of storms is possible overnight into early Sat as upstream energy lifts NE from GA/SC and western sections of NC. As the front is progged to lift slowly northward or remain stationary across central NC, the best chance for TSRA overnight would be at GSO/INT/RDU, where lift and instability is more focused. Most high-res guidance suggests this, but uncertainty in the coverage means that it cannot be ruled out at FAY/RWI early Sat. Outside of storm chances overnight, CIGs are expected to lower to IFR to perhaps LIFR, with conditions slowly rising to MVFR to VFR midday Sat. FAY may see the least CIG restrictions given it will be south of the front. Outlook: Showers and storms will continue into this weekend and early next week as a front stalls over the area and several impulses track through in the moist flow. Early morning fog and stratus will be possible each day as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023 July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020 July 21: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1932 KFAY: 80/2017 July 22: KRDU: 78/2011 July 23: KRDU: 78/2011 July 24: KRDU: 79/2011 KFAY: 79/1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Kren CLIMATE...RAH