Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Graphics & Text |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
664
UXUS97 KPUB 111210
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0610 MDT Thursday, July 11, 2024

This forecast is for Villa Grove, CO for Thursday, July 11, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 68.4 F/20.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1591 ft/min (8.1 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 24772 ft MSL (15786 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1700 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 21454 ft MSL (12468 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 07/12....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:50:13 / 20:28:14 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 38 min 1 sec (878 min 1 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:09:13 MDT... 73.57 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 07/11/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16202 ft MSL (7216 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17281 ft MSL (8295 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19628 ft MSL (10641 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -6.7
K index......................... +20.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.2 -74.6   005   21   11   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -55.5 -67.9   005   28   14   2.1   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -51.7 -61.1   005   28   14   4.5   2.5      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -49.0 -56.2   005   28   14   4.5   2.5      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -46.3 -51.3   005   28   14   4.5   2.5      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -41.9 -43.4   360   26   14   7.6   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -37.3 -35.1   360   25   13   7.6   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -32.6 -26.7   360   23   12   8.0   4.4   31.6  88.9     3.0      M    M
 29000  -30.2 -22.4   360   22   11   8.0   4.4   31.0  87.8     2.6      M    M
 28000  -27.3 -17.1   360   21   11   7.7   4.2   30.3  86.5     2.0      M    M
 27000  -25.0 -13.0   355   18    9   7.8   4.3   29.4  85.0     1.3      M    M
 26000  -22.7  -8.9   355   16    8   7.8   4.3   28.7  83.7     0.7      M    M
 25000  -20.4  -4.7   355   14    7   7.2   4.0   28.1  82.6     0.2      M    M
 24000  -18.4  -1.1   005   14    7   6.8   3.7   27.0  80.5    -0.8   1517  7.7
 23000  -16.4   2.5   015   15    8   6.8   3.7   25.9  78.7    -1.7   1428  7.3
 22000  -14.3   6.3   020   17    9   7.5   4.1   25.0  77.1    -2.6   1337  6.8
 21000  -12.1  10.2   025   19   10   7.8   4.3   24.3  75.7    -3.3   1240  6.3
 20000   -9.8  14.4   025   20   11   7.8   4.3   23.6  74.5    -4.0   1142  5.8
 19500   -8.7  16.3   025   21   11   8.1   4.4   23.3  74.0    -4.3   1094  5.6
 19000   -7.4  18.7   025   22   11   9.0   4.9   23.2  73.7    -4.5   1041  5.3
 18500   -6.1  21.0   025   21   11   9.0   4.9   23.0  73.5    -4.7    987  5.0
 18000   -4.8  23.4   025   21   11   8.8   4.8   22.9  73.2    -4.9    933  4.7
 17500   -3.5  25.7   025   20   10   8.8   4.8   22.7  72.9    -5.1    880  4.5
 17000   -2.2  28.0   025   19   10   8.7   4.8   22.6  72.7    -5.3    827  4.2
 16500   -1.0  30.2   020   17    9   8.4   4.6   22.4  72.3    -5.6    775  3.9
 16000    0.2  32.4   020   15    8   8.4   4.6   22.2  71.9    -5.8    723  3.7
 15500    1.5  34.7   015   14    7   8.6   4.7   22.0  71.6    -6.0    671  3.4
 15000    3.4  38.1   010   11    6   8.6   4.7   21.7  71.1    -6.4    592  3.0
 14500    4.6  40.3   005   10    5   8.6   4.7   21.5  70.7    -6.6    540  2.7
 14000    5.9  42.6   355    9    5   8.9   4.9   21.4  70.5    -6.8    486  2.5
 13500    7.3  45.1   340    9    4   9.4   5.1   21.3  70.3    -7.0    432  2.2
 13000    8.4  47.1   325    8    4   7.0   3.9   21.0  69.8    -7.3    383  1.9
 12500    9.4  48.9   310    8    4   6.9   3.8   20.6  69.1    -7.8    338  1.7
 12000   10.3  50.5   290    7    4   5.8   3.2   20.2  68.3    -8.4    295  1.5
 11750   10.7  51.3   275    8    4   4.2   2.3   19.8  67.6    -8.8    278  1.4
 11500   11.0  51.8   265    8    4   4.1   2.3   19.4  66.9    -9.3    262  1.3
 11250   11.2  52.2   260    9    5   3.8   2.1   18.9  66.0    -9.7    246  1.3
 11000   11.5  52.7   250   10    5   3.8   2.1   18.5  65.2   -10.2    230  1.2
 10750   11.8  53.2   245   11    6   4.0   2.2   18.0  64.4   -10.7    215  1.1
 10500   12.1  53.8   245   12    6   3.3   1.8   17.6  63.6   -11.2    199  1.0
 10250   12.2  54.0   240   12    6   2.6   1.4   17.0  62.7   -11.7    186  0.9
 10000   12.4  54.3   240   12    6   2.7   1.5   16.5  61.7   -12.3    174  0.9
  9750   12.6  54.7   240   12    6   3.1   1.7   16.0  60.8   -12.9    161  0.8
  9500   12.6  54.7   240   11    6  -5.7  -3.1   15.3  59.5   -13.6    153  0.8
  9250   11.5  52.7   240    8    4 -21.5 -11.8   13.5  56.3   -15.5    178  0.9
  9000   10.5  50.9   250    5    3   6.9   3.8   11.7  53.1   -17.3    203  1.0
  8750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/11/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       07/11/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...  +521.4    LI...       -1.7        | CAPE...  +942.7    LI...       -3.5
CINH...  -109.7    K Index... +25.1        | CINH...    -1.2    K Index... +27.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.5 -75.1  020  18  9   2.4   1.3 | -59.1 -74.4  015  17  9   2.2   1.2
 45000 -55.9 -68.6  015  25 13   2.5   1.3 | -55.9 -68.6  005  22 11   1.9   1.0
 40000 -51.4 -60.5  015  36 19   5.2   2.9 | -52.2 -62.0  010  32 17   5.5   3.0
 38000 -48.3 -54.9  020  36 19   5.2   2.9 | -48.9 -56.0  010  31 16   5.5   3.0
 36000 -45.2 -49.4  025  36 19   5.4   3.0 | -45.6 -50.1  015  31 16   5.9   3.2
 34000 -40.9 -41.6  020  32 16   7.2   4.0 | -41.0 -41.8  015  29 15   7.7   4.2
 32000 -36.6 -33.9  015  28 14   7.2   3.9 | -36.4 -33.5  015  28 14   7.6   4.2
 30000 -32.1 -25.8  005  25 13   7.5   4.1 | -31.7 -25.1  015  24 13   7.9   4.4
 29000 -29.9 -21.8  005  24 13   7.6   4.1 | -29.3 -20.7  015  23 12   7.9   4.4
 28000 -27.1 -16.8  360  23 12   6.5   3.5 | -26.4 -15.5  015  20 10   7.2   4.0
 27000 -25.2 -13.4  360  20 10   6.6   3.6 | -24.3 -11.7  010  19 10   7.3   4.0
 26000 -23.2  -9.8  005  17  9   6.6   3.6 | -22.1  -7.8  010  17  9   7.3   4.0
 25000 -21.3  -6.3  010  14  7   6.8   3.7 | -19.9  -3.8  005  15  8   6.6   3.6
 24000 -19.3  -2.7  015  15  8   6.9   3.8 | -18.1  -0.6  005  14  7   6.4   3.5
 23000 -17.3   0.9  020  16  8   7.0   3.8 | -16.2   2.8  005  12  6   6.5   3.5
 22000 -15.2   4.6  025  17  9   8.5   4.7 | -14.3   6.3  360  12  6   7.7   4.2
 21000 -12.7   9.1  015  17  9   8.8   4.8 | -12.0  10.4  360  13  7   7.9   4.3
 20000 -10.1  13.8  010  18  9   8.9   4.9 |  -9.7  14.5  355  15  8   7.9   4.3
 19500  -8.8  16.2  010  18  9   8.7   4.8 |  -8.6  16.5  355  16  8   8.1   4.4
 19000  -7.5  18.5  010  18  9   8.5   4.6 |  -7.4  18.7  355  16  8   8.4   4.6
 18500  -6.3  20.7  010  18  9   8.4   4.6 |  -6.2  20.8  355  15  8   8.4   4.6
 18000  -5.0  23.0  010  17  9   9.5   5.2 |  -4.9  23.2  350  15  7   9.3   5.1
 17500  -3.5  25.7  010  17  9   9.6   5.3 |  -3.6  25.5  350  14  7   9.4   5.2
 17000  -2.1  28.2  010  16  8   9.5   5.2 |  -2.2  28.0  350  13  7   9.5   5.2
 16500  -0.7  30.7  010  15  8   9.2   5.1 |  -0.8  30.6  350  12  6   9.5   5.2
 16000   0.6  33.1  010  15  7   9.2   5.1 |   0.6  33.1  350  12  6   9.6   5.2
 15500   2.0  35.6  010  14  7   9.4   5.1 |   2.0  35.6  350  11  6   9.2   5.1
 15000   3.4  38.1  010  13  7   9.5   5.2 |   3.3  37.9  355  10  5   9.4   5.2
 14500   5.3  41.5  005  12  6   8.3   4.5 |   4.6  40.3  355   9  4   8.1   4.4
 14000   6.6  43.9  360  12  6   9.0   4.9 |   6.7  44.1  355   6  3   9.9   5.4
 13500   8.0  46.4  355  11  6   9.5   5.2 |   8.2  46.8  355   5  2  10.3   5.7
 13000   9.3  48.7  350  11  5   8.5   4.7 |   9.6  49.3  355   4  2   8.9   4.9
 12500  10.5  50.9  340  10  5   8.3   4.5 |  11.0  51.8  360   3  1  10.1   5.5
 12000  11.7  53.1  330   9  5   7.0   3.9 |  12.5  54.5  005   2  1   9.6   5.3
 11750  12.1  53.8  325   9  5   5.1   2.8 |  13.2  55.8  010   2  1   9.3   5.1
 11500  12.4  54.3  315   8  4   4.1   2.3 |  13.9  57.0  015   2  1   9.8   5.4
 11250  12.6  54.7  300   8  4   3.3   1.8 |  14.6  58.3  020   2  1   9.9   5.5
 11000  12.9  55.2  290   8  4   3.5   1.9 |  15.3  59.5  025   2  1   9.9   5.4
 10750  13.1  55.6  275   8  4   3.9   2.2 |  16.1  61.0  030   2  1  10.2   5.6
 10500  13.4  56.1  270   9  5   4.3   2.4 |  16.9  62.4  035   2  1  10.5   5.8
 10250  13.7  56.7  260   9  5   4.4   2.4 |  17.6  63.7  040   2  1  10.7   5.9
 10000  13.9  57.0  255   9  5   3.9   2.1 |  18.4  65.1  045   2  1  10.3   5.6
  9750  14.2  57.6  245   9  5   6.0   3.3 |  19.2  66.6  055   2  1  11.7   6.4
  9500  14.8  58.6  245   9  4  13.1   7.2 |  20.3  68.5  060   2  1  18.7  10.3
  9250  16.0  60.8  240   7  4  18.3  10.0 |  22.0  71.6  070   1  1  26.3  14.4
  9000  17.2  63.0  230   6  3  11.1   6.1 |  23.6  74.5  080   1  1  14.2   7.8
  8750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/11/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       07/11/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE... +1148.1    LI...       -3.2        | CAPE...  +688.5    LI...       -2.2
CINH...   -19.2    K Index... +24.6        | CINH...   -35.5    K Index... +27.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.4 -74.9  020  15  8   3.3   1.8 | -59.5 -75.1  025  13  6   4.0   2.2
 45000 -55.1 -67.2  005  19 10   1.7   0.9 | -55.4 -67.7  360  18  9   0.1   0.0
 40000 -51.8 -61.2  360  28 15   5.3   2.9 | -53.6 -64.5  355  26 13   7.6   4.1
 38000 -48.6 -55.5  360  28 14   5.3   2.9 | -49.1 -56.4  345  22 11   7.5   4.1
 36000 -45.5 -49.9  005  27 14   5.7   3.1 | -44.6 -48.3  330  19 10   7.6   4.2
 34000 -40.9 -41.6  010  24 12   7.7   4.2 | -39.8 -39.6  330  18  9   8.1   4.4
 32000 -36.3 -33.3  015  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -34.3 -29.7  335  17  9   8.6   4.7
 30000 -31.0 -23.8  020  20 10   7.9   4.3 | -29.7 -21.5  345  18  9   7.8   4.3
 29000 -28.7 -19.7  025  19 10   7.9   4.3 | -27.4 -17.3  345  19 10   7.8   4.3
 28000 -26.3 -15.3  030  18 10   8.4   4.6 | -25.2 -13.4  350  20 10   7.0   3.9
 27000 -23.8 -10.8  025  17  9   8.4   4.6 | -23.1  -9.6  350  20 10   7.1   3.9
 26000 -21.3  -6.3  020  15  8   8.4   4.6 | -21.0  -5.8  350  20 10   7.1   3.9
 25000 -18.8  -1.8  020  14  7   7.1   3.9 | -18.9  -2.0  355  20 10   7.0   3.9
 24000 -16.9   1.6  010  13  7   6.6   3.6 | -16.8   1.8  355  20 10   7.0   3.8
 23000 -15.0   5.0  360  12  6   6.6   3.6 | -14.8   5.4  355  20 10   7.0   3.9
 22000 -13.0   8.6  350  11  6   7.2   4.0 | -12.7   9.1  355  20 10   7.2   3.9
 21000 -10.9  12.4  355  12  6   7.4   4.1 | -10.6  12.9  355  20 10   7.2   4.0
 20000  -8.7  16.3  360  12  6   7.5   4.1 |  -8.5  16.7  355  20 10   7.3   4.0
 19500  -7.6  18.3  005  12  6   7.8   4.3 |  -7.5  18.5  355  20 10   7.4   4.0
 19000  -6.4  20.5  005  12  6   8.5   4.7 |  -6.4  20.5  360  19 10   7.7   4.2
 18500  -5.2  22.6  005  11  6   8.5   4.7 |  -5.3  22.5  360  18  9   7.7   4.2
 18000  -3.9  25.0  005  10  5   8.7   4.7 |  -3.7  25.3  005  16  8   7.0   3.8
 17500  -2.7  27.1  010   8  4   8.7   4.8 |  -2.7  27.1  005  14  7   7.1   3.9
 17000  -1.5  29.3  010   6  3   8.9   4.9 |  -1.7  28.9  010  12  6   6.9   3.8
 16500  -0.2  31.6  010   5  2   9.2   5.0 |  -0.7  30.7  015  10  5   6.9   3.8
 16000   1.1  34.0  020   3  2   9.2   5.0 |   0.3  32.5  020   8  4   7.1   3.9
 15500   3.1  37.6  030   2  1   9.3   5.1 |   1.4  34.5  025   6  3   7.6   4.2
 15000   4.5  40.1  040   2  1   9.4   5.2 |   2.5  36.5  035   5  2   7.5   4.1
 14500   5.9  42.6  045   1  1   9.2   5.0 |   3.7  38.7  050   3  2   9.0   4.9
 14000   7.2  45.0  050   1  1   8.9   4.9 |   4.9  40.8  070   2  1   7.9   4.3
 13500   8.7  47.7  055   1  0  10.8   5.9 |   6.1  43.0  105   2  1   9.4   5.2
 13000  10.0  50.0  065   1  0   7.9   4.3 |   7.2  45.0  135   2  1   6.2   3.4
 12500  11.3  52.3  000   0  0   9.0   4.9 |   8.2  46.8  165   2  1   7.7   4.2
 12000  12.6  54.7  235   1  0   7.7   4.2 |   9.4  48.9  180   2  1   6.9   3.8
 11750  13.1  55.6  235   1  1   6.6   3.6 |   9.8  49.6  190   2  1   5.3   2.9
 11500  13.6  56.5  235   2  1   8.3   4.5 |  10.3  50.5  200   3  1   6.8   3.8
 11250  14.2  57.6  235   2  1   9.0   4.9 |  10.8  51.4  205   3  1   7.4   4.1
 11000  14.9  58.8  235   2  1   8.9   4.9 |  11.3  52.3  215   3  2   7.8   4.3
 10750  15.5  59.9  235   3  1   8.4   4.6 |  11.8  53.2  220   3  2   4.7   2.6
 10500  16.1  61.0  235   3  1   9.2   5.0 |  12.1  53.8  225   4  2   5.7   3.1
 10250  16.8  62.2  235   3  1  10.1   5.5 |  12.7  54.9  230   5  2   9.2   5.1
 10000  17.5  63.5  230   3  2  10.3   5.6 |  13.3  55.9  230   5  3   9.1   5.0
  9750  18.3  64.9  230   3  2   8.6   4.7 |  13.9  57.0  235   6  3   6.3   3.4
  9500  18.9  66.0  230   3  2  15.3   8.4 |  14.2  57.6  240   6  3   7.5   4.1
  9250  20.7  69.3  230   3  2  31.6  17.3 |  15.1  59.2  240   6  3  18.8  10.3
  9000  22.4  72.3  230   3  2   1.2   0.7 |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC).  It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near Villa Grove, Colorado at:

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 16 min 03 sec
                   West Longitude: 105 deg 53 min 37 sec
                   Elevation: 7986 feet (2434 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613