Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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600
FNUS75 KPUB 161202
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Crowder WF...Ft Carson Fire Dept
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
602 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front is expected to pass through late this morning,
bringing in northerly and northeasterly winds before increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some storms
could be strong to severe, with flash flooding, damaging winds
gusting over 60 mph, and 1 inch hail all possible with storms
today. Chances for excessive rainfall and flash flooding will
continue near the fire through the rest of the week, especially
for tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(37 percent) until 1500, then
                    mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms from 1300 until 1500,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....93-95F.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North at 5 mph until 1500, then north around 10 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1300.
Mixing height.......2500 ft agl until 1100, then 6500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph until 1100, then north around
                    8 mph until 1600, then northwest.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800. Good after 1300.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  18  17  16  15  14  37  61  84  83  81
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   4   4   4
Temp............68  74  79  85  89  92  94  95  94  90  87
RH..............59  46  39  31  26  23  22  20  21  25  30
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   7   7   7   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   7   10  10  10  16  16  16
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   4   4   4   4   6   6   6   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.5 7.0 9.0 10  10  6.5 5.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   W   NW
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   8   7   9   9   8   12  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10004   8   13  17  31  41  71  79  71  67  67

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 2400, then partly cloudy(35
                    percent). Showers with thunderstorms likely
                    until 2400.
LAL.................5 until 2000, then 4 until 2200, then 3 until
                    2300, then 1.
Min temperature.....61-63F.
Max humidity........79-84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 12 mph until 2400, then
                    southwest at 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms until 2400.
Mixing height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph until 0100. Northwest around
                    6 mph after 0400.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  81  82  83  70  58  45  38  32  25  30  35
Weather cov.....DEF LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH                     SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW                      RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH                     SCH
LAL.............5   5   4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............78  77  73  71  69  68  67  66  65  65  63  63
RH..............43  47  55  61  66  68  70  73  78  78  84  81
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  8   8   8   6   6   6   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  13  13  13  9   9   9   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   7   7   5   5   5   4   4   4   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  8   8   8   5   5   5   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.NW  N   W   N   W   W   W   W   SW  W   NW  W
Transp wind spd.18  14  12  12  10  9   8   8   9   7   7   7
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100040  22  14  16  13  10  7   8   7   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny(51 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 1200. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0900 until 1200, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....86F.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North at 5 mph until 0900, then northeast around 8
                    mph until 1200, then east around 10 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    after 0900.
Mixing height.......2500 ft agl until 1100, then 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph until 0900, then southeast
                    around 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. Good after 1200.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  41  42  43  44  46  63  63  63  63  63  63
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
LAL.............1   1   1   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
Temp............62  66  70  74  78  82  83  84  85  86  85  83
RH..............84  73  61  53  45  38  37  34  33  32  35  37
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   13  13  13  15  15  15  16  16  16
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   8   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 5.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 5.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.8   8   7   7   7   8   9   9   12  13  14  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10005   6   9   12  20  31  45  58  70  74  68  61

$$
Forecaster...EHR
Requested by...P. Wolf
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418168.0/PUB
.DELDT 07/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0