Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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894 FXUS65 KPUB 151727 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1127 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal heat continues today, with Heat Advisories remaining in effect across portions of our plains. - Increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms is expected for today, with outflow winds gusting up to 60 mph possible across our plains. - Strong to severe thunderstorm, along with flash flooding, risks increases Tuesday and Wednesday, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances persisting into the weekend. - Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Currently.. Radar imagery shows dissipating showers over our far eastern plains and southern mountains as of 3 AM, with no lightning left across our area for the past few hours. One of these collapsing showers just caused a heat burst a Lamar, where a 42kt wind gust and 20 degree temperature jump from 75 to 95 (at 3 AM!) was just recorded. Satellite reveals thick mid and upper-level cloud cover across our eastern plains, which has helped to keep temperatures in the upper 70s for many locations, with the obvious exception of Lamar, who is currently sitting at 95 this hour after their heat burst. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 40s, which is notably higher than yesterday for most locations. Today and Tonight.. Models continue to weaken the high overhead today, allowing the upper-ridge to sag southwestward throughout the day. Models have also trended another couple of degrees cooler with afternoon temperatures today, especially along the I-25 corridor. Daytime high temperatures are still expected to be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and are also forecast to be within just a couple of degrees of daily records for both KCOS and KPUB, but a noticeable improvement is expected with the heat for this afternoon across our plains. All of that said, a Heat Advisory remains in place for El Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and eastern Fremont counties for this afternoon, where above normal temperatures and one last day of 94 to 104 degree heat is forecast. Expect the worst of the heat to come early in the afternoon across the I-25 corridor, as convective cloud cover should help to take the edge off by around 2 to 3 pm for most mountain adjacent locations. As the high weakens, better moisture begins to make its way into our region as the northern periphery of the weakening ridge sags south across our area today. This will allow for better coverage of thunderstorms, and better chances for meaningful rainfall out of thunderstorms as well, especially over the high country. The SPC has outlined portions of our eastern plains, along with El Paso County, for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, with the main risk being damaging winds gusting in excess of 60 mph. Though the risk for dry lightning fire starts seems much less likely for today than what we saw yesterday, inverted V forecast soundings and close to 2000 J/Kg of DCAPE still look to prevail across the plains, suggesting that gusty thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible with storms again this afternoon, especially earlier in the day. Our first, weaker cold push arrives later this afternoon and into this evening, which will help to keep overnight lows a few degrees cooler than we`ve been the past several nights, but still about 2 to 3 degrees warmer than normal for most locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Anticipate the upper ridge to breakdown on Tuesday, as a cold front moves across the area. Still expect temps to be lower on this day, though the highest temps could still reach the mid to potentially upper 90s over the plains. Still some variability as to how the low to mid levels respond on Tuesday, which will be key as to the extent of the moisture/instability return across the plains. Should see the low to mid levels veer more easterly during the day, which should allow the moisture and instability to push west across the plains. Once again, the extent of this push is still in questions, but feel fairly confident that this push will at least make it into the eastern plains. Then anticipate stronger mid level energy to propagate overhead Tuesday afternoon, as additional focus/support arrives via lee troughing. This increase in forcing/focus, moisture and instability, along with some increases in flow and shear, will support the risk for strong to severe storms across the plains Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The coverage and intensity of any severe storms will be in response to how the moisture and instability evolve. By Wednesday, will see even cooler temperatures across the area. Guidance in fair agreement with deep and persistent east southeast flow in place, flow that will likely push into the higher terrain. This will support a further westward expansion of this moisture and instability, all of which will support another day of thunderstorm development over and near the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor. Some risk for strong to severe development on Wednesday, but will be growing more concerned for heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding, especially as PWATs will be on the rise. Will see the upper ridge trying to build back in across the region Thursday into Friday with some warming temperatures, though still remaining near normal for this time of the year. An active and wetter pattern is still appearing possible during this time and even into the weekend, with daily shower and thunderstorm development expected across southern Colorado. While can`t rule out stronger development, think the risk of heavy rains would be the trend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Gusty winds will pick up this afternoon, from the west at KALS and from the east-northeast at KCOS and KPUB, gusting around 20- 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area this afternoon into early evening as well, with the most likely time of storm formation between 20-02Z. Gusty outflow could cause erratic winds upwards of 50 knots. Storms will depart the areas near the terminals by approximately 9pm, though a few showers may linger over the Palmer Divide a bit longer. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093- 097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO