Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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914 FXUS65 KPUB 040958 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 358 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and seasonably cool today across the area. Low chance for a shower or two over the Palmer, with potential for scattered showers and storms over the SE plains tonight. - There will be a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection through the extended, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Dry conditions with seasonably normal temperatures will lead to a fairly mild 4th of July today. Dry northwest flow aloft will set in just behind the departure of the previous upper trough, allowing some gusty winds to mix down towards the surface over parts of the higher terrain. This, mixed with drying conditions, will result in some spotty critical fire weather conditions over parts of the La Garitas, northern San Luis Valley, and Chaffee County. However, conditions at this time look too spotty to warrant any highlights. Over the eastern plains, winds will be easterly and fairly weak, and will bring in enough moisture to raise humidities well out of critical range. While there does exist a low-end chance for an isolated shower or two over the Palmer Divide later this afternoon into this evening, chances are low for any precipitation to make it to the ground in our forecast area today. Otherwise, the area will be dry through the rest of the day with partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures staying in the 80s. Tonight, some models do show some isolated convection over the far southeast plains, generally due to easterly upslope taking advantage of the moist post-frontal air. However, only some of the models are putting out these showers and storms in our area, leaving most of the activity south of us. Anything that does form is likely to be high-based given the dewpoint spreads. Little precipitation is expected at this time, though showers could put out some strong outflow winds and some small hail if they manage to persist, given the good amounts of shear in the convective-allowing models. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Friday and Saturday...Upper ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the West Coast through Sat, keeping cooler northwest flow aloft across CO. However, an upper low will drop into the Dakotas Sat, shifting the flow aloft to a slightly more westerly direction and tightening the pressure gradient. This will mean warmer temps on Sat as well as dry conditions and less convection for the higher elevations and I-25 Corridor, as well as spotty near-critical fire weather conditions. Across the far eastern plains, surface winds will shift to a more southerly direction, drawing llvl moisture up into the southeast corner of the state and increasing chances for a few strong storms along the eastern border. Look for high temps around 80F for the high valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s for the plains on Fri, then 5 to 10 degrees warmer across the plains on Sat. Sunday and Monday...A cold front drops south across eastern CO Sunday morning, knocking temps down to slightly below normal levels once again across the eastern plains for both Sunday and Monday. In addition, frontal passage and the resulting upslope flow at the surface will increase precipitation chances across the eastern mts and plains Sunday and Sunday night. By Monday the ridge to the west will start to move inland, weakening the northwest flow aloft, and lingering moisture will translate to scattered convection over the mts and isolated activity for the plains during the afternoon and evening. Plan on high temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most areas both days. Tuesday and Wednesday...The center of the western ridge moves across NV and UT, boosting temps across the forecast area and keeping isolated to low end scattered precip chances mainly tied to the higher terrain. Maximum temps will climb to around 80F for the high valleys and 80s to around 90F for the plains both days. Moore && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds at KALS will gust out of the west-southwest this afternoon to around 20-25 knots, while KCOS and KPUB will see southeasterly gusts. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO