Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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560 FXUS65 KPUB 060447 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1047 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible over the southern I-25 corridor this afternoon and evening. - Warmer on Saturday, a couple of strong to severe storms possible over the far southeast Plains. - More widespread rain shower and thunderstorms expected Sunday, with a strong to severe thunderstorm possible. - Daily chances for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected Monday through Thursday, though mostly over the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Currently...radar indicates a few showers and thunderstorms across the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, east into the Raton Mesa region this afternoon. Cumulus have been bubbling over the Rampart Range and Wet Mountains as well based on satellite imagery. Temperatures are quite nice for July, with mid 70s to mid 80s across the region. Rest of today and tonight...weak upper energy embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across Colorado through this evening. Weak instability mainly over the higher terrain will continue to spark isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the Pikes Peak Region, south along the Wet and southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges. A couple of these storms may drift east off the Rampart Range and across El Paso County through early evening. A strong, to possibly severe storm or two may be possible over the Raton Mesa, with lightning, hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph may be possible. Expect any shower and thunderstorm activity across the Pikes Peak Region to quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as the upper wave moves southeast. For areas across the Raton Mesa, showers and thunderstorms will track southeast, clearing the area overnight. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s to lower 60s across the Plains, with 40s over the San Luis Valley. Saturday...northwest flow will continue throughout the day, with more weak energy tracking southeast across the Plains. Low level flow is forecast to shift a bit more southwesterly by late morning, with drier air out near the Continental Divide spreading eastward into the I-25 corridor. A few spotty critical fire weather conditions may be possible Saturday afternoon out west, but not enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. Across the Plains, drier air will spread into the I-25 corridor, shunting moisture out to near the Kansas border. Models are split on shower and thunderstorm development, with most guidance not overly enthused about the potential. Based on the the majority of guidance, have isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the far southeast Plains by mid afternoon. Much will depend on how far east the drier air pushes. SBCAPE values around 1800 j/kg and modest shear may allow for a couple of strong to possibly severe storms late Saturday afternoon, with the best potential east of Kim to Lamar. Hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph may accompany stronger cells. Temperatures will warm up tomorrow, with max temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the Plains, and 80s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Saturday Night: The first night of the weekend is expected to bring quiet weather for south central and southeastern Colorado, though there is a chance for thunderstorms over the plains. Northwest flow with an embedded shortwave is anticipated for Saturday night, and while synoptic support will be in place, dry conditions are expected given the lack of any instability. With that said though, an outflow reinforced westward retreating dryline may provide enough of a surface boost to allow for elevated thunderstorms to blossom across the far eastern plains and take advantage of instability aloft. Confidence in any thunderstorm development is very low (<20%), but if a storm develops, it could become strong to severe given shear in place and the uptick in moisture and instability behind the dryline, with hail the primary threat. Looking at temperatures, a mild night is anticipated, with much of the region hovering around and just slightly below seasonal values for early July. Sunday: The last day of the weekend will bring a more active weather day to the region. Northwest flow will continue, but another, more amplified wave, will push over south central and southeastern Colorado. Along with that, a cold front will race southward during the day, bringing with it increased moisture. With the forcing and support from the wave and cold front, along with the uptick in moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for much of the area, but especially along the eastern mountains and I- 25 corridor region where forcing will be greatest. Given the magnitude of shear and instability that is expected to be present, a strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorm or two is possible. Any precipitation during the afternoon and early evening hours will dissipate during the mid to late evening hours as instability and forcing both wane. Looking at temperatures, given the aforementioned cold front, much of the lower elevations will drop to below seasonal values, while the valleys and mountains remain around seasonal values. Monday - Thursday: For much of next week, a rinse and repeat type pattern is expected. Northwest to northerly flow will remain in place, with a ridge of high pressure slowly drifting eastward. While forcing will be more meager and mostly driven by orographics, moisture will not become scoured out. Given this, daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected, though mostly along the mountains. Any precipitation present each day is anticipated to lessen in coverage during the evening hours. Temperatures during this period will slowly rebound back to around seasonal values for early to mid July. With that said though, Monday will be below seasonal values for much of the region given the cold front passage Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds increasing from the south to southwest Saturday afternoon. Winds will be strongest at KALS where gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest will be possible after 20z with a wind shift from the northwest to north during the early evening. KCOS and KPUB will see increasing southerly winds ahead of another cold front which will send a northeast to easterly wind shift into both terminals between 00z and 03z. There could be some gusts up to 30 kts with the wind shift later in the evening though confidence in timing and magnitude at this point is low due to the potential for outflow enhancement from thunderstorms well to the east which may not be properly resolved. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with thunderstorms staying confined well to th east the TAF sites. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT