300
FXUS61 KPHI 150526
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
126 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass will be over the region this week
with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. A
cold front will stall near or just south of our area on
Wednesday. It will move back northward as a warm front on
Thursday. Another cold front approaches toward the end of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The Flood Watch was cancelled at 10 PM Monday, as all heavy
rainfall had ended across the watch area. Additional flooding
is no longer expected to pose a threat through tonight, however
several Flood Warnings remain in effect due to ongoing flooding.
The only River Flood Warning is up for Chatham along the
Passaic River. No additional main stem river flooding is
expected through tonight. Continue to monitor the latest
warnings for your area and take action as needed.

Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
through the overnight period. Warm and humid conditions for the
remainder of the overnight with low clouds and some fog possible
too. Light and variable winds. Please contact our office or
post on social media and damage or pictures of flooding, only if
you can do so safely.

Latest guidance depicts the front stalling just south of our
region. If this comes to fruition, that would mean the main
focus for storms tomorrow will be south and east of our region.
That being said, there is still uncertainty if the front will
make it that far south. In the area of the front, expect another
round of potential heavy rain. One thing that is different
tomorrow (as compared to today) is the mid and upper level
pattern will be characterized by short wave ridging instead of
the trough that is crossing over today. Consequently, coverage
of storms, even in the area of the front will be far more
limited.

Even if the front is fully south of our area, it is weakening,
so don`t expect any significant dry or cold air advection in its
wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather along with very warm and humid conditions
will continue through Thursday. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected, with locally heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding being the primary threat. On Thursday,
there is also a concern for extreme heat.

The front may begin to lift north on Wednesday, but its exact
placement remains uncertain at the moment. The shortwave ridge
will still be overhead on Wednesday, and this could act to
introduce some dry mid level air into the equation. Synoptic
forcing will not be strong, and shear will again be weak. At
least scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop again
into the afternoon and evening due to the diurnal instability
and lack of any significant subsidence or CIN. PoPs remain
around 50- 70% for our inland areas. No severe probabilities are
currently included from SPC, but there could be an isolated
damaging wind gust from any stronger thunderstorms that develop.
PWats will again by high around 2" or so, so the tropical
downpours will also remain a threat.

On Thursday, southwesterly flow will bring back warm air and
moisture advection resulting in heat index values approaching
100 degrees in many areas. This could be the warmest day of the
week (unless the cold front on Friday is later than currently
expected).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday could be another hot day depending on the timing of the
next cold front. Latest guidance shows the front crossing
through the region late in the day, and into the overnight hours
on Friday. If that timing holds, most of the area (aside from
Delmarva) may be a degree or two lower on Friday as compared to
Thursday.

Heading into the weekend, Saturday should experience the lowest
chance of convection with a surge of slightly drier air, lower
instability, and some subsidence from the departing trough.
Temperatures returning back closer to normal. Chances for
convection should increase again some for Sunday as the boundary
start lifting north with return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions expected. Rain showers
come to an end with low stratus and mist developing after
06-08Z at all terminals. Winds light and variable, becoming calm
at times. Low-moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings, should improve to VFR by
the afternoon. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the afternoon, so have included VCSH for KILG/KMIV/KACY for now.
Temporary VSBY/CIGs possible in heavier showers. Light and
variable winds early, settling out of the south around 4-7 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...Primarily VFR expected, with some low clouds
possibly developing after 06Z. Light southerly winds around 5 kt
or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Overall, prevailing VFR
conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result
in brief restrictions daily. Restrictions conditions are also
possible overnights/early mornings due to low clouds and fog,
but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low
on any daily details.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should generally stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight. Gusty winds could be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms late today/this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and seas should stay below
Small Craft Advisory criteria through this period. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the late
afternoon and evening hours.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday, southerly winds 5-10 mph with breaking waves
around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with an easterly swell around
1 foot at 6-7 seconds in length will result in a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
at all beaches.

For Wednesday, south-southwesterly winds 5-10 mph with breaking
waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with an easterly swell
around 1 foot at 6-8 seconds in length will result in a
continued LOW risk for life threatening rip currents at all
beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch was canceled at 10 PM Monday, as all heavy
rainfall had ended across the watch area. Additional flooding
is no longer expected to pose a threat through tonight, however
several Flood Warnings remain in effect due to ongoing flooding.
The only River Flood Warning is up for Chatham along the
Passaic River. No additional main stem river flooding is
expected through tonight.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Johnson/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/RCM/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Johnson/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Johnson/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Johnson/RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann
HYDROLOGY...PHI