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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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332 FXUS61 KPHI 201922 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 322 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure is nearby today as a front remains stalled to our south. A weak system slides by to our north tonight, then a front settles into our area Sunday night before stalling in our vicinity through early next week. This front may dissipate Wednesday then a cold front should arrive later Thursday or Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A little bit of an active and unsettled afternoon ahead as two systems clip our region. Not expecting much in terms of severe or impactful weather however. A shortwave trough incoming from the west will be responsible for sparking a few showers/thunderstorms in the Lehigh Valley/northern New Jersey/southern Poconos. Should be more of the garden variety thunderstorms as cloud cover has limited instability from increasing and shear is rather meager. To the south, a stalled boundary will slowly lift northward, with an area of low pressure moving along the boundary and out to sea, just to the south and east of our area. Some showers will sneak in through the evening hours for South Jersey and southern Delmarva as the low slides by. Both features should be clear of the region by daybreak Sunday. The Philly metro will be caught in the middle of these two systems, and most around the city will stay dry. As mentioned previously, showers/a few thunderstorms will continue into the night, though rain chances are only around 20-40% for the northern and southern areas. Outside of any rain, it will be mostly cloudy/overcast, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s. Should be a quiet Sunday as an upper level low well to the north moves out towards the North Atlantic. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest, but not expecting any precipitation as it enters our area late tomorrow. Temperatures will be right around normal for mid-summer, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... There may be a few scattered showers across the southernmost parts of the region Sunday night, but overall most areas will be dry Sunday night as the weak upper and surface ridge weaken. It`ll remain humid and seasonably mild with low temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. Can`t rule out some rural fog overnight. As we start the week, there are greater chances for showers and tstms both Mon/Tue as the front that has been the the south of the area this weekend starts to track northward. Upper energy arriving from the Midwest will ignite some showers/tstms as it moves by. We have high chance and low likely pops for much of the time and with the high PW across the area. Downpours and some localized flooding can`t be ruled out. High temperatures will be near normal Mon/Tue with upper 70s/low 80s N/W and mid/upper 80s S/E. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The synoptic scale Bermuda High at the surface and aloft will stretch back across the Middle Atlantic area early/mid next week. This will promote an continuing increase in moisture for the area with normal or slightly above normal temps much of the time. The broad SW flow aloft will keep upper disturbances crossing through atop of the lower level heat and humidity. Consequently, chances for showers and tstms exist for the entire period from Mon night into Wednesday. This highest pops for the period (Wednesday) occur as a stronger disturbance and surface low move across the Great Lakes up into southern Canada. A front attached will cross the area. We`ll have Likely pops in most areas which will continue into the evening/overnight for the SE parts of the area. There are some differences with the models, so we do expect some timing chances as we get closer to the event. Later next week, the upper trough over the Great Lakes continues to push east towards New England. It`s influence across our region will be low/medium at best with some added synoptic scale lift and higher chances for showers and tstms. We`ll carry these higher pops (high chance/low likely) for Thursday and then decrease to pops back to lower chance for Friday. Drier air will arrive behind a front which will cross the area Late Thursday night. The front (as the one that crossed our region late last week) will not chance temperatures too much, so readings will remain near normal late next week. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Rest of Today...Prevailing VFR. High and mid level clouds around, but no impact to terminals. Slight chance (15-25%) of a shower or thunderstorm, most likely at KABE and have included a VCTS there, though the bulk of the showers/thunderstorms should remain off to the north from there. Southerly winds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions expected to continue but chances for showers increase, mainly at KACY/KMIV. However, most recent guidance has trended lower with rain chances, and if a shower did make it to the terminal, still expecting VFR to prevail. Slight chance (15-20%) of a shower within the I-95 corridor this evening, but given that any showers should be light and rain chances are only for a short period, have elected to not have any rain mentioned for the I-95 terminals. Winds become light once again, but may favor a south-southwest direction, particularly for the I-95 terminals. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt at the South Jersey terminals, with west/northwest winds elsewhere around 5-10 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in wind direction. Outlook... Sun night... Mostly VFR. Patchy rural fog possible. Monday thru Thursday... VFR except with scattered showers/tstms which will bring lower CIGS/VSBYS at times. Timing of the lower conditions is mostly afternoon/early evening. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected on the waters. Winds around 5-10 kt with 2 to 3 foot seas. Some showers possible, mainly south of Little Egg Inlet. Outlook... More typical summertime weather with limited winds and seas (sub-SCA) and scattered showers/tstms. Storms favoring the late afternoon and evening hours. Higher winds and seas with tstms. Rip Currents... For today and Sunday, there will be a southerly wind near 10 mph with breaking waves in the surf zone of 1 to 2 feet and a 6 to 7 second period. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the New Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gorse NEAR TERM...Hoeflich SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...Hoeflich/OHara MARINE...Hoeflich/OHara