180
FXUS61 KPHI 210009
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
809 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system slides by to our north tonight, then a front
settles into our area Sunday night before stalling in our
vicinity through early next week. This front may dissipate
Wednesday then a cold front should arrive later Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough incoming from the west has been responsible
for sparking showers in the Lehigh Valley/northern New
Jersey/southern Poconos. To the south, a stalled boundary will
slowly lift northward, with an area of low pressure moving along
the boundary and out to sea, just to the south and east of our
area. Some showers will sneak in through the evening hours for
South Jersey and southern Delmarva as the low slides by. Both
features should be clear of the region by daybreak Sunday. The
Philly metro will be caught in the middle of these two systems,
and most around the city will stay dry. Temperatures falling
into the mid to upper 60s. Could be a little patchy fog
overnight as well, especially where a little rain fell.

Should be a mostly quiet Sunday as an upper level low well to
the north moves out towards the North Atlantic. A weak cold
front will approach from the northwest. This might be enough to
spark off some isolated showers, and several CAMS along with
some of the lower res models suggest the area to watch is right
around the I-95 corridor, exacctly where rain generally didn`t
fall today. Thus, have introduced some slight chance POPs for
this area on Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures will be right
around normal for mid-summer, with highs in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There may be a few scattered showers across the southernmost
parts of the region Sunday night, but overall most areas will be
dry Sunday night as the weak upper and surface ridge weaken.
It`ll remain humid and seasonably mild with low temperatures in
the upper 60s/low 70s. Can`t rule out some rural fog overnight.

As we start the week, there are greater chances for showers and
tstms both Mon/Tue as the front that has been the the south of
the area this weekend starts to track northward. Upper energy
arriving from the Midwest will ignite some showers/tstms as it
moves by. We have high chance and low likely pops for much of
the time and with the high PW across the area. Downpours and
some localized flooding can`t be ruled out. High temperatures
will be near normal Mon/Tue with upper 70s/low 80s N/W and
mid/upper 80s S/E.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The synoptic scale Bermuda High at the surface and aloft will
stretch back across the Middle Atlantic area early/mid next
week. This will promote an continuing increase in moisture for
the area with normal or slightly above normal temps much of the
time. The broad SW flow aloft will keep upper disturbances
crossing through atop of the lower level heat and humidity.
Consequently, chances for showers and tstms exist for the entire
period from Mon night into Wednesday. This highest pops for the
period (Wednesday) occur as a stronger disturbance and surface
low move across the Great Lakes up into southern Canada. A front
attached will cross the area. We`ll have Likely pops in most
areas which will continue into the evening/overnight for the SE
parts of the area. There are some differences with the models,
so we do expect some timing chances as we get closer to the
event.

Later next week, the upper trough over the Great Lakes
continues to push east towards New England. It`s influence
across our region will be low/medium at best with some added
synoptic scale lift and higher chances for showers and tstms.
We`ll carry these higher pops (high chance/low likely) for
Thursday and then decrease to pops back to lower chance for
Friday. Drier air will arrive behind a front which will cross
the area Late Thursday night. The front (as the one that crossed
our region late last week) will not chance temperatures too
much, so readings will remain near normal late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions expected to continue, though
a few showers possible mainly KABE/KRDG and KMIV/KACY. However,
if a shower did make it to the terminal, still expecting VFR to
prevail. Winds become light once again, but may favor a south-
southwest direction, particularly for the I-95 terminals.
Wherever a little rain falls, there could be some reductions in
mist late tonight, but low confidende on that. Moderate
confidence overall.

Sunday...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt at the South
Jersey terminals, with west/northwest winds elsewhere around 5-10 kt.
High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in wind
direction. Could be an isolated shower, especially I-95
terminals, but have not included in TAF yet.

Outlook...

Sun night... Mostly VFR. Patchy rural fog possible.

Monday thru Thursday... VFR except with scattered showers/tstms
  which will bring lower CIGS/VSBYS at times. Timing of the
  lower conditions is mostly afternoon/early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected on the waters. Winds around 5-10
kt with 2 to 3 foot seas. Some showers possible, mainly south of
Little Egg Inlet.

Outlook...
More typical summertime weather with limited winds and seas
(sub-SCA) and scattered showers/tstms. Storms favoring the late
afternoon and evening hours. Higher winds and seas with tstms.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday...South-southeast winds around 5-10 mph with breaking
waves around 1-2 feet and a 6 to 7 second period. This yields a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Monday...South-southeast winds around 10 mph with breaking
waves around 1-3 feet and a 9 to 10 second period. Full Moon
phase occurs on Monday as well. With onshore flow becoming a
bit more perpendicular for southeasterly facing beaches, a
longer period and a full moon, have opted to go with a MODERATE
risk for rip currents for Atlantic/Cape May Counties. For
Ocean, Monmouth and Delaware Beaches, continued with a LOW risk
for dangerous rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Hoeflich/OHara/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM