814
FXUS61 KPBZ 061355
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
955 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through Monday with temperatures rising
well above normal by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today.

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Drier southwest flow and sfc high pressure building in from the
west will support dry weather today. Scattered cumulus will
gradually diminish under increasing subsidence. Drier air will
mix to the surface and bring relief to the region from the
multiple day experience of humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather
  persists.
- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region.
Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air
returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog
development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday
morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic
will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next
upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk
concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat
indices above advisory criteria remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.
- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the
wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating
to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature.
Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means
showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at
least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other
severe hazards.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence forecast. IFR clouds are possible through 14Z at
a few airports in wake of the cold front. After 14Z...VFR
weather returns the balance of the forecast. DUJ and FKL could
keep MVFR CIGS through 15Z if they don`t mix out like other
airports. Wind will be west today with gusts around 20kts.

.Outlook...
VFR weather through Monday. A chance of MVFR or lower brief
flight restrictions are possible starting Tuesday with the next
weather system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/88/McMullen