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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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062 FXUS61 KPBZ 141135 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 735 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A more active weather pattern featuring increased thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather will return later tonight through Wednesday, followed by dry and seasonable weather after the passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Well above normal temperatures and largely dry conditions through the afternoon. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shortwave ridging transitioning over the region will maintain dry conditions and daytime highs around 10F above normal on average across the region today. Winds will veer slightly as as the surface ridge subtly shifts southeastward. Uncertainty remains with the evolution of an MCS crossing out of the upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. CAMs continue to hint at a weakening trend as this feature pushes southeast into our region, owing to continued warm air aloft and a relatively dry environment. It is possible that Sunday evening may remain dry or see little more than light rain showers with increased cloud cover. However, significant variations exist in how quickly these storms fall apart and the timing. The SPC Day 1 Outlook has maintained a marginal risk (1/5) into our eastern Ohio counties. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Active weather with the potential for severe hazards will be possible possible during the period until the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. - Heat risks continue but will be dependent on convective evolution and resultant cloud cover. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The mentioned shortwave/decaying MCS is pegged by models to help erode/cool the warm air aloft and prime the region for additional shortwave movement overnight into Monday. Ensembles are trending toward higher probabilities for showers and thunderstorms ahead of that wave Monday, but much variation remains (and will be tethered, in part, to upstream convective evolution). General consensus still favors an afternoon timing where mean SBCAPE values will range from 2000-3000 J/kg, weak shear and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. These would indicate a damaging wind (and lower probability hail threat) environment via either individual storm clusters or a secondary MCS. However, at least one CAM favors morning convection across the area before a more robust MCS Monday evening. Morning/early afternoon convection could certainly throw a wrench in more organized evening storms. Timing and presence of convection will also greatly determine the extent of potential heat risks. The lack of convection and cloud cover through a portion of the afternoon could foster mid 90s highs with rising dewpoints, creating fairly widespread heat indices above 100F; early convection and/or lingering cloud cover may make it difficult to even hit 90. Ensembles favor additional shortwave movement south of a deepening upper level trough north of the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The more well developed trough is then favored to push a cold front through the region Wednesday afternoon/evening and position broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes to end the work week. In a broad sense, this pattern lends to a peak in hot/humid conditions and potential severe weather Tuesday; peak shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday with frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and seasonable temperature return Thursday through the end of the week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure moving in behind the cold front and cool sfc advection will return dry conditions to the region Thursday. Thursday`s highs are forecast to dip several degrees below normal, before a warming trend begins Friday and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected today under the continued influence of high pressure. Expect a few/sct CU with diurnal heating and potential for an occasional SW wind gust to 20kts. Considerable uncertainty continues for the evening/overnight period into Monday. A decaying MCS may approach the area from the NW near 00z, though model depiction varies widely in strength/location/coverage. Trends have decreased probability of thunderstorms or even rain making it this far east, though probability for this is highest at KFKL. For now, have dropped all mention for the event from all terminals except PROB30 at FKL. Additional convection is possible near 12z Monday, but confidence on this is very low. .Outlook... Periodic shortwave movement will lend to thunderstorm chances through mid week, peaking Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Timing and coverage will be difficult to ascertain even a day out due to the strong impact of prior days convective evolution. High pressure is favored by Thursday and ensure another period of VFR and dry weather. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...88 AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier