463
FXUS63 KPAH 202012
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend;
  however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.

- Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return
  to the forecast this afternoon through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A surface trough is stalled out south of the Pennyrile in
Tennessee today, and expected to remain through tomorrow.
Scattered showers and storms have developed in Tennessee, moving
northeastward, but activity weakens upon reaching the KY
border. A few thunderstorms remain possible in the Southern
Pennyrile today but, with very limited shear and CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated. Increased
cloud coverage today has kept temperatures in the low to mid 80s
at most locations, with a degree or two warming remaining this
afternoon.

Similar conditions continue tomorrow, with broader coverage of
slight chance PoPs as a disturbance moves closer from the
northwest. Highs remain in the mid-80s with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

Much of next week will feature troughing in the east with a
ridge in the west. A series of disturbances move northeastward,
bringing daily shower and storm chances Monday to Wednesday. The
axis of heaviest rain is south of the CWA but adjustments are
possible. Convective parameters remain meager so lighting and
heavy rain remain the primary hazards for now. Slow moving
storms have the potential to develop a localized flood risk, but
for now only a marginal risk day 4 exists in the ERO. High
pressure moves into the Great Lakes for the end of the week.
Precip chances remain but decrease as more ensemble members
shift the storm track and Gulf moisture eastward.

High temperatures remain in the 80s through the 7 day forecast,
while lows warm towards the upper 70s as moisture increases next
week. The 8-14 day outlook has flipped over to a very slight
lean to above normal temperatures as the trough is likely to
lift by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

SCT-BKN diurnal VFR bases will range from 5-10K FT AGL are
expected to the north of a weak trof that is inverted across the
Tennessee Valley. Light winds and a slow uptick in boundary
layer moisture may allow for some patchy fog to develop
overnight. Slightly lower diurnal bases to 4K FT AGL will be
possible tmrw with dew points slightly higher.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...99