838
FXUS63 KPAH 172022
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and early
  this evening.

- A cooler and much less humid air mass will take hold from
  Thursday through early next week.

- A small chance of thunderstorms returns Sunday and increases
  through Tuesday. At this time, severe storms and widespread
  heavy rainfall are not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A broken band of showers with an occasional lightning strike
has developed along the cold from near Murphysboro to near
Carmi Illinois. We have gotten some funnel clouds
pictures/reports from under some of them. While the images look
more like a cold air funnel hanging from a cloud base, the
environment (combination of surface vertical vorticity along the
boundary and 0-3km CAPE over a 100 J/kg) looks reasonably ripe
for land spouts. There is no rotation noted on radar with the
cells. Either way, the threat to life and property is very low
and a Special Weather Statement has been issued to address the
possibilities.

The front and any remaining thunderstorms should push south of
the area by around sunset. A few showers may linger behind the
front in the far southeast into the overnight hours, but it
should be dry throughout the region by sunrise Thursday.

Dry and cool surface high pressure will then dominate the region
through the weekend and into next week. Aloft we will remain in
the base of a trough aloft, but more energy will eventually drop
into the central Plains and refocus the troughiness to our west
over the weekend. Temperatures will be several degrees below
normal Thursday and Friday and then gradually trend upward
through the weekend. However, the current forecast keeps
temperatures below normal through next Wednesday.

The initially very dry airmass will slowly modify beginning over
the weekend, as winds remain north or northeast. The NBM brings
some small chance PoPs back to the region Sunday, as dewpoints
climb back into the upper 60s. A weak inverted surface trough
tries to develop over west Kentucky Monday, and that will help
dewpoints climb near 70. The increased low-level moisture,
presence of a surface boundary, and the general troughing aloft
would support at least some small chance PoPs on Monday.

By Tuesday the Quad State should be under southwest flow aloft
and there is the possibility of a warm front lifting northeast
through the region. Dewpoints will climb above 70, so Tuesday
should be the best chance of convection. As a result the NBM
PoPs climb into likely territory. Next Wednesday will be similar
to Tuesday minus the warm front, so there should be a good
chance of diurnal convection across the Quad State. Wind fields
will remain weak, so organized severe storms are not expected
through the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A cold front has already passed KMVN and will pass through the
remaining TAF sites by 00Z. Ahead of it, MVFR ceilings and
scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected. North winds under
10kts and clearing skies are expected behind the front this
evening through Thursday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS