435
FXUS63 KPAH 181958
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
258 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will trend upward through the weekend, but will
  remain below normal for at least the next week.

- A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns mainly for west
  Kentucky Sunday afternoon and then over the entire region
  Monday through next Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Surface high pressure and weak troughing aloft will keep the
weather very quiet across the Quad State to end the week. This
weekend, energy descending into the Plains will help shift the
upper trough back to our west over the central Plains. This will
eventually allow an inverted surface trough to push westward
into west Kentucky Sunday into Monday. A weak warm front of
sorts will then lift north through the area Tuesday, resulting
in southwest winds for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will gradually trend warmer through the weekend, as
the airmass slowly modifies. ConsMOS was used through Friday
night to emphasize the dry air in place across the region, and
to indicate a greater diurnal range than the NBM and most
guidance would support. Temperatures may reach the upper 80s in
some locations Sunday, but that will likely be the warmest we
see for the week.

Beginning Sunday afternoon, small chances of convection return
to the forecast mainly over west Kentucky. With the inverted
surface trough Monday and warm front Tuesday, PoPs will
increase throughout the Quad State. With the upper trough just
west of the area and increasing low-level moisture, the NBM`s
likely PoPs seem reasonable each afternoon beginning Monday and
continuing through next Thursday. There is no sign of enough
shear to support an organized severe threat, but with decent
convective coverage for several days in a row, some localized
flooding issues may eventually develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The TAFs are VFR. Surface high pressure centered north of the
region will keep northeast winds through the entire period. A
few gusts to around 15kts will be possible this afternoon. There
should be enough wind to prevent any fog formation tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS