Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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799 FXUS63 KPAH 070649 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 149 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the second half of the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Monday as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region. - Rainfall chances will become likely for the middle of the week as the remnants of Beryl move through the area. Locally heavy rain is possible. - Drying out for the end of the work week, with only a small chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A pleasant Sunday appears likely today with seasonable temperatures and somewhat lower dewpoints. The main focus of the forecast centers around Tropical Storm Beryl, an approaching trough in the northern Plains and the interaction between the two. Global guidance seems to be trending stronger and more negatively tilted with the upper trough that ultimately captures Beryl and sends its remnants to the northeast. The track both from guidance and NHC has been pretty consistent in moving over southeast Missouri Tuesday into Wednesday. Shifts in the track however remain likely and will have implications on our impacts as of course will the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast. As a result of the stronger trend in the upper trough the remnant cyclone looks to get more of a baroclinic enhancement than it did 24 hours ago as it passes overhead. This results in better kinematics in the southeastern quadrant from stronger low level winds. Instability is limited due to poor mid level lapse rates but there seems to be a little higher risk of severe weather Tuesday into Wednesday southeast of the cyclone track, with an axis of heavier rain closer to and just northwest of the storm track. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches seem plausible along the storm track as well. The trick will be of course where exactly the storm tracks which will decide exactly who gets what. The probability of advisory level winds looks higher than it did 24 hours ago as its not hard to visualize some localized areas of stronger pressure gradient just ahead and behind the cyclone, although its still probably less than 50 percent. The stronger trough results in a stronger front sweeping through which seems to dry us out and lower humidity and temperatures in the wake of Beryl, which should give us another few relatively pleasant days before moisture return and humidity picks up on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Good flying conditions are expected through much of this TAF issuance. The main concern will be late tonight into Sunday morning as temperatures approach the crossover temperature threshold near EVV/OWB. That may introduce some ground fog with MVFR visibility. Otherwise, a few afternoon CU will be possible Sunday afternoon and winds will remain fairly light, under 10 kts. Winds become light and variable toward sunset once again Sunday evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC