Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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518 FXUS63 KPAH 061940 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the second half of the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Monday as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region. - Rainfall chances will become likely for the middle of the week as the remnants of Beryl move through the area. Locally heavy rain is possible. - Drying out for the end of the work week, with only a small chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...Brilliant weather for early July will continue through tonight and Sunday as high pressure remains centered over the region. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s. Added a mention of patchy fog to the forecast for the Wabash River valley around daybreak Sunday where temperatures will cool the most, but dense fog does not appear likely at this time. Sunday will again see plenty of sunshine with slightly warmer temperatures owing to increasing southerly return flow. This will allow high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity levels will be somewhat tolerable for most of the day, but towards the evening dew point temperatures will creep towards 70 degrees. Sunday night will be dry with low temperatures falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most areas. Monday through Wednesday night...A complex and tricky setup is in store for the early to middle part of next week. There will be two features that will impact the region: 1) an upper-level trough that will move from the central and northern Great Plains and 2) the remnants of Beryl, which is forecast to make landfall Monday along the Texas Gulf Coast. As it stands now, Beryl will be drawn north and eventually northeast as it interacts with the upper-level trough. This will bring the center of circulation through or close to the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. However, precipitation chances will ramp up beginning as early as Monday as the upper-level trough moves towards the region. Forcing looks to be minor, so only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at this time. This will allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. PoPs will increase to high chc and likely Monday night as Beryl begins to interact with the trough. Beryl`s tropical profile will result in a deep warm cloud layer and elevated PWAT values, both will result in efficient/enhanced rainfall processes. The heaviest rain looks to pass through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, just ahead of the arrival of the center of circulation. By late Wednesday night, the latest WPC QPF shows a broad brush of 1-3" of rain falling during the Tuesday- Wednesday period, with locally higher amounts possible across southeast MO into western KY. The potential for flooding impacts will depend on rainfall rates, at least some nuisance flooding looks likely at this time assuming nothing changes considerably with Beryl`s path. Clouds and rain coverage will keep high temperatures confined to the lower to middle 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Did have to make some adjustments to the NBM initialization to reflect the increases QPF: 1) increased PoPs into the high chc and likely ranges for Tuesday night through Wednesday night period, 2) increased sky cover during this period as well, 3) bumped up winds/wind gusts slightly to match with southern neighbors, but winds should still be well below Wind Advisory criteria. Thursday through Friday night...The impacts of Beryl will exit the region from west to east during the day Thursday. This will mean lowering PoPs and less cloud cover. High temperatures will return to the middle to upper 80s for this period, with overnight lows falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most areas. The upper-level trough will still be near enough to the region to keep a slight to low chc PoP in the forecast during the heat of the day both days, but the great majority of the forecast area will be dry as we go into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will continue as high pressure settles over the region tonight. FEW-SCT diurnal CU will diminish to clear skies overnight, with more CU developing Sunday after 16z. Light and variable winds will become calm overnight... picking up from the SSE around 5 kts Sunday morning. Low temperatures will fall near crossover temperature thresholds tonight, so some patchy fog development cannot be ruled out around daybreak. However, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS