392
FXUS64 KOUN 201115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The synoptic-scale upper pattern will be pretty constant through
sunrise Sunday with the large upper high over the Great Basin and a
low over the upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep weak
northwesterly flow over Oklahoma with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Highest chances for rain will
occur early Sunday morning given the proximity of a weak surface
front to northern Oklahoma and a weak short-wave trough rotating
around the upper low. A few storms could produce near-severe wind
gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The synoptic pattern will change little for the
southern plains through the middle of next week with a strong upper
high over the Colorado Plateau and a trough extending from the Great
Lakes into Oklahoma. The remanant of a weak surface front are
expected to be in Oklahoma through the time with higher boundary
layer moisture in place than in recent days. General shower and
storm chances will persist through this time. By late in the week
the upper trough to the northeast may shift eastward while leaving a
weak remnant low that was in the base of the trough over
Oklahoma/north Texas. This will keep rain/storm chances in the
forecast through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Episodic rounds of widely scattered convection are expected across
the forecast area through early Sunday morning. Brief periods of
MVFR conditions are possible should a heavier downpour impact a
terminal. Overall predictability of timing/impact at any one
terminal is low, though a local maxima in coverage is expected
from this evening into early Sunday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  68  83  67 /  40  70  20  20
Hobart OK         94  68  88  67 /  30  50  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  70  90  69 /  20  40  30  30
Gage OK           92  66  87  63 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     84  67  85  65 /  40  60  20  20
Durant OK         92  71  89  69 /   0  30  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...34