Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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545 FXUS64 KOUN 150732 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Dangerously hot weather will occur today as the magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge increases across the Southern Plains. Afternoon temperatures will range from 100 to 110 deg F with heat indices between 105 to 110 deg F. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area. One factor that will help it feel not as miserable is a southerly breeze (at least compared to a calm wind). However, it is definitely a day to take extra precautions if you plan to be outdoors for any extended period of time. For tonight, remnant showers and thunderstorms may approach northern Oklahoma from Kansas in association with a weak boundary/cold front. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms was introduced to account for this possibility. No severe weather is expected. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Forecast uncertainty has increased on Tuesday as most convective- allowing models now indicate that a remnant boundary/weak effective cold front from the previous night`s convection will advance into Oklahoma--perhaps near or north of the I-40/I-44 corridor--by afternoon. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) has a 40% chance of composite reflectivity >40 dBZ along I-40 to I-44 by late afternoon. The 12 km NAM also suggests there could be a boundary in the area. As a result, opted to introduce a 20 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of Oklahoma. Given the uncertainty on the location of the boundary, kept the area fairly broad and the probabilities below the HREF for now. The primary hazard with any thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts give the large amount of downdraft CAPE (>1500 J/kg). Locally heavy rainfall is also possible given the potential for slow storm motions. The location of this boundary will also modulate temperatures Tuesday afternoon with the potential for lower temperatures (it`ll still be hot) across northwest Oklahoma and higher temperatures (pre-frontal torch) ahead of the boundary when compared to today. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the area for Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday into Thursday, confidence remains high for a significant pattern change across the Southern Plains as the synoptic-scale pattern is forecast to transition to northwest flow aloft. Northwest flow will allow for a stronger cold front push to advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass will bring relief to the heat in the front`s wake. The most likely scenario is high temperatures will only be in the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday. Northwest flow will likely persist into the upcoming weekend with the potential for an embedded trough and associated cold front Saturday into Sunday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms and continued below-average temperatures. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions with light to moderate southerly winds expected. Some increase in high level clouds late tonight and tomorrow across northern and western Oklahoma. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 101 78 103 76 / 0 0 30 20 Hobart OK 103 77 104 75 / 0 0 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 107 75 101 69 / 0 20 20 30 Ponca City OK 106 80 105 73 / 0 20 20 30 Durant OK 101 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...11