857
FXUS64 KOUN 152321
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Warm tonight with lows in the 70s to around 80 across the area. Some
showers/storms could move into northern parts of the fa overnight
into Tuesday morning with a boundary moving into parts of the area
by Tuesday morning.

The position of this boundary will have an impact on temperatures
and rain chances Tuesday leading to a bit of uncertainty, especially
in the temp forecast. Depending on how far south the boundary goes,
clouds and potentially rain will lead to slightly cooler
temperatures north of the boundary. Ahead of the boundary, another
day of triple digit temperatures and higher heat index values are
expected, especially in the immediate area ahead of the front where
the thermal ridge (pre-frontal torch) is expected to set up. With
this in mind, a heat advisory was issued for the southern half or so
of the fa for Tuesday afternoon. The heat advisory may need to go
further north with north central OK most likely but with uncertainty
of the boundary and clouds/rain will let later shifts take a look at
it to see if have a better idea of frontal position. Another thing
later shifts will need to take a look at is the potential need for
an Excessive Heat Warning, especially in the axis of the pre-frontal
torch/thermal ridge where heat index values could climb to around
110 but with the uncertainties of this position will hold off on
that for now as well.

The boundary will also have the potential for a focus for isolated
to scattered shower/storm development late Tuesday afternoon into
the evening hours. Large dewpoint depressions are expected leading
to Inverted-V profiles so some of these storms could become severe
with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Another round of showers/storms will be possible later Tuesday
evening into the overnight hours. With upslope flow north of the
previously mentioned boundary, storms are expected to develop in the
High Plains in E CO/W KS. These storms could then develop into
thunderstorm complex that moves across portions of OK Tuesday night,
with the highest chances across northern OK. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible with this activity as well with damaging
wind gusts the primary concern.

Models continue to show the pattern shifting the middle of the week
with the mid/upper ridge amplifying in the western U.S. and NW flow
developing over the Plains. A cold front with cooler air behind it
is expected to move across the region Wednesday. This cooler air
will bring a break to the heat. The NW flow is currently forecast to
continue into at least the weekend which will lead to highs in the
80s and low 90s (near or below average) for the latter half of the
week into the weekend.

The NW flow and cool front Wednesday will continue rain chances
across at least parts of the area Wednesday into Thursday and then
again over the weekend when a storm system moving through the flow
affects the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, although very high based
SHRA/TSRA will be possible overnight and early tomorrow morning
across northern Oklahoma terminals (bases 10-15kft) with no
restrictions expected. Will include VCTS at KWWR and KPNC for
now. This activity would be focused near and just behind a
prefrontal trough that will at least temporarily weaken and switch
southern winds to northerly across at least northern Oklahoma.
Farther south, southerly expected to continue with SCT-BKN high
cloud cover. TSRA appears likely across northern Oklahoma just
beyond this forecast valid period and will be included in next
forecast if model trends continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 103  75  89 /   0  20  20  30
Hobart OK         77 105  74  92 /   0  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  79 105  79  97 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           75 100  68  87 /  20  20  50  30
Ponca City OK     80 103  72  86 /  20  30  40  40
Durant OK         78 102  78  98 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ016>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11