061
FXUS64 KOUN 161138
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and a few strikes of lightning have developed across
northwest Oklahoma early this morning in the presence of undular
bores moving southeastward out of Kansas. These are rooted at and
above the 600 mb layer where steep lapse rates aloft have
contributed to 1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This activity has some self-
propagating element to it, so it will likely persist and spread
eastward for the next several hours. However, short-range HRRR
guidance suggests instability will lessen and the LLJ will continue
to veer, so a diminishing trend around daybreak is likelier than not
to occur.

Surface observations show that the shift to northerly winds
associated with a composite frontal boundary is located across the
northern Texas panhandle, far northwest Oklahoma, and back northward
into southwest Kansas. Short-term guidance brings that boundary into
northern Oklahoma this morning before stalling it as a weak surface
trough develops in northern Oklahoma. To the south of that boundary,
southwest surface winds and sunshine will contribute to a prefrontal
torch with temperatures rising to 102-107 and heat indices rising
into the upper 100s. Along and north of the boundary, highs may be a
smidge cooler with greater cloud cover, but with weaker winds and
greater humidity. Thus, heat risk will also occur in north central
Oklahoma. A heat advisory has been added to that area. An excessive
heat warning was considered for parts of southwest Oklahoma and the
I-44 corridor, but uncertainty on the location of the boundary and
prefrontal torching preclude the issuance of that product for now.

Further storm development is probable along the boundary toward mid-
afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but very hot boundary
layers will contribute to the development of modest surface-based
instability. Initial storms may be slow-moving single cells or
multicells with the potential for downbursts in an environment
characterized by 1,400 DCAPE and high mid-tropospheric relative
humidity. Some upscale growth into a southeastward-moving, loosely-
defined MCS is also possible during the afternoon and evening.

The greatest potential for organized storms appears that it will
come overnight as convection races eastward off of the Raton Mesa
and Sangre de Cristos into the postfrontal airmass. 2,000 MLCAPE and
strongly veering low-level wind profiles will favor development of
an MCS with damaging wind potential across northwest and potentially
north central/central Oklahoma overnight. Moist tropospheric
profiles (PWATS near 1.8 inches) may also support flooding, though
overall the synoptic environment should favor progressive convection.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The front should resume its southward trundle during the day
tomorrow, perhaps aided by outflow from overnight storms. Further
development of storms on Wednesday looks likeliest near and just
behind the boundary, mostly in southern Oklahoma and potentially
western north Texas. Overall storm probabilities in those areas
appear to be lower than we will see tonight.

After that, a trough will continue to deepen in the Mississippi
Valley, strengthening northerly flow aloft. This pattern supports
multiple days of cooler-than-average temperatures and chances for
rain. On Thursday, those chances will most likely linger in southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas, while most places see highs near
90. More of the same is expected Friday and Saturday as the ridge
continues to amplify to our west. However, on Sunday, global models
begin to indicate the development of a trough or even a cutoff low
over the central/southern Plains as the remnant trough to our east
retrogrades. While this is far from a certainty at the moment, such
a scenario could lead to highs dropping even further into the lower-
to-mid 80s with chances for showers and storms increasing into early
next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma should
gradually decrease in coverage this morning with the primary
impacts at KWWR and KPNC.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and are more likely this evening across the northern half to two-
thirds of Oklahoma. Gusty winds and brief reductions in
visibility are possible in the most intense storms.

Winds will be somewhat variable across northern terminals (KWWR,
KPNC, and KSWO) as a weak wind shift will be in the area.
Elsewhere, southerly winds will veer to south-southwest and become
gusty this afternoon. A cold front will move through tonight with
winds shifting to the north at most terminals.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103  74  88  68 /  30  40  30  30
Hobart OK        105  74  92  67 /  30  40  30  30
Wichita Falls TX 104  78  96  70 /  10  20  20  30
Gage OK          101  68  88  64 /  30  70  30  20
Ponca City OK    100  71  87  65 /  30  60  40  10
Durant OK        101  79  97  71 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-016>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10