780
FXUS64 KOUN 180726
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Light northeasterly winds are expected throughout the day today
within a rather rare July postfrontal airmass. As a surface high
continues to build in across the Upper Midwest, renewed advection of
drier air is currently being shown on the models. Doubt that the
HRRR`s evolution showing dewpoints dropping into the mid-50s will
come to fruition given the rainfall we`ve received the last few
days, but even the NAM shows dewpoints dropping to about 60 this
afternoon. That combined with highs in the upper 80s (mid-90s to the
south and west of the Wichitas) will make this a rather pleasant
afternoon. There is a very low (10%) chance of precipitation in
northwest Oklahoma this afternoon, but most guidance depicts that
precip decaying in Kansas before it gets here.

Thanks to that drier air and partly cloudy skies, lows tonight
should drop into the mid-to-upper 60s across most of the area.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A prolonged period of below-average temperatures is underway as
ridging builds in to our west and a trough slowly creeps
southwestward toward us through the weekend. The primary forecast
challenge deals with the potential for precipitation beginning
Saturday morning.

The impetus for increased rain chances will be a brief return to
southerly surface winds in our area during the day on Saturday,
which will open us up to moisture advection. Lapse rates will be
weak, but very moist/tropical profiles will support "skinny CAPE"
environments favorable for storm development. Thus, scattered
thunderstorms are expected beginning on Saturday, which will
encourage some outflow boundaries to develop, which may become the
focus for further storms on Sunday and so on. This stagnant
pattern looks to last for several days as a composite outflow-
driven boundary eventually begins sagging through our area. The
coolest days of the coming period look to be Sunday and Monday,
where even parts of western north Texas may not make it out of the
80s. A gradual warmup is expected toward the middle of next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No aviation concerns for most of the forecast area. The potential
exception is near KDUA where there is a low chance of showers
tonight and early tomorrow, and some low potential of MVFR
ceilings in stratus Thursday morning. The shower/storm chances are
too low to include a tempo or VCSH/VCTS, and the potential of MVFR
ceilings is not high enough to introduce it the TAF, but will add
at least a SCT015 to indicate some potential of stratus clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  65  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  66  92  69 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           88  64  90  66 /   0  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     87  63  89  65 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         91  67  90  66 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26