726
FXUS64 KOUN 182337
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Only issue in the short term will be a potential for convection late
tonight across northwest Oklahoma.  All CAMs along with latest NAM &
ECMWF suggesting QPF developing across our west after midnight
perhaps due to mid-level moisture upglide seen on the 310 K
isentropic surface.  Forecast soundings suggest a mid-level moisture
layer but dry in the lower levels with low confidence if the lower
levels saturate.  As a result, will introduce very low POPs for
tonight across northwest Oklahoma should the lower levels moisten
up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The forecast remains on track with our next system starting to come
through resulting in a wet weekend, especially Saturday. A weak
upper trough from the main jet flow up in Canada will be digging
across the U.S. Great Plains and into the Southern Plains by Friday
night when our pressure heights start falling. Although models have
been performing poorly with the moisture fields in the short term,
they do suggest an additional boost of moisture advection/increase
from southerly winds on Saturday with a lifting warm front so still
expecting robust surface moisture for this weekend. Forecast
soundings showing deep moisture from the mid-levels up being
transported within the upper trough, while a fairly weak but
adequate low-level jet over the Southern High Plains may also
provide some additional low-level moisture and ascent in the 925-850
mb layer across our western CWA. The first of a series of shortwaves
embedded in the trough is expected to reach our western CWA on
Friday night as well and over our remaining CWA during the day.  In
addition to the elevated convection, low-level moist air overrunning
the warm front may also increase rain shower coverage on Saturday
while potentially uncapped across our western CWA by late afternoon
could result in more surface based convection developing there. Lots
of moisture fuel and lifting mechanisms will be in place but
instability will be limited.

With the location of Friday nights low-level jet and mid-level
shortwave across our western CWA, will start but restrict POPs
across northern and western Oklahoma and adjacent western north
Texas starting early Saturday morning into the afternoon eventually
into portions of central Oklahoma (and OKC Metro) toward the evening
hours keeping them generally west and north of the I-44 corridor. As
Saturday evening progresses, will see the rain/storms increase
eastward through the overnight hours.  Although indistinguishable to
see in the models, there still appears to be a weak cold front
pushing through late Sunday with POPs briefly ending behind it. With
the synoptic boundary across northern Texas perhaps stalling out,
will restore POPs for Monday and Tuesday keeping the probabilities
highest (20-30%) across our southern CWA.  Expected rain total
accumulations this weekend through Monday range from 0.10 to 1.0
inches with the higher amounts across our southern and eastern CWA.
Grand Ensemble probabilities are less than 20% for total rainfall
accumulation over 1 inch.  Although the main energy will have moved
out, we`ll still remain under the trough through the end of next
week keeping our temperatures just below seasonably average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Widely scattered showers across southeast Oklahoma have generally
dissipated, and the potential to see any more is rather low this
evening. There are also low chances (20%) of showers or storms
across northwest Oklahoma Friday morning including the KWWR area,
but too low to include in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through this forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  88  67  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         66  92  69  90 /   0   0  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  68  92  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           65  89  66  88 /  20  20  30  50
Ponca City OK     63  90  66  87 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK         68  90  65  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26