274
FXUS64 KOUN 190754
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
254 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A few showers or possibly a thunderstorm may move into the
northwestern corner of Oklahoma by sunrise. Any are expected to
dissipate within a few hours. At the surface, Oklahoma will remain
under the influence of the air mass over the Ohio and mid-
Mississippi Valleys giving slightly below normal temperatures and
humidity through sunrise Saturday. Aloft, weak northwesterly winds
around the Colorado Plateau upper high will allow a weak short-wave
trough to impinge on northern Oklahoma after midnight. This will
bring low shower/thunderstorm chances to northwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

As the upper short-wave trough moves east through
Oklahoma Saturday morning, shower/thunderstorm chances will diminish
across northern Oklahoma. However, by  Saturday evening, a weak
front will move into northern Oklahoma coincident with another upper-
shortwave trough moving around a low across Iowa. This is expected
to bring a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of
the northwestern two-thirds of Oklahoma early Saturday. With the
surface boundary stalled over Oklahoma Saturday night and Sunday
morning along with another upper wave rotating around the quasi-
stationary upper low, broader rain and thunderstorm chances are
expected Saturday night into Sunday. It appears that with timing of
the upper wave, early Sunday will have the best chance for rain.
Rain chances decrease, but continue into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The showers had dissipated over southeast Oklahoma, but the clouds
persist and just within the last few minutes a shower has
developed northeast of Durant. Right now it still looks like the
probability of showers is too low to include in the KDUA TAF, but
there could be an isolated shower somewhere nearby. Meanwhile the
showers and storms on the High Plains look like they will stay
west of the area, although some of the high-resolution models do
show the potential for isolated showers early Friday morning, but
again the potential appears to low to include in the KWWR TAF as
well. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with relatively light
east/northeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  68  86  67 /   0  10  20  60
Hobart OK         91  69  92  66 /  10  30  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  92  70  93  70 /   0  10  20  40
Gage OK           90  67  91  64 /  20  40  40  30
Ponca City OK     89  67  83  66 /   0  20  30  70
Durant OK         90  67  92  70 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26