378
FXUS64 KOUN 111950
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
250 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

As has been the case the past couple days, daytime heating and weak
capping has led to the development of isolated showers and storms
this afternoon. This activity has mostly been focused within a
surface trough across western Oklahoma, but could spread into
central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Severe weather is not
anticipated but gusty winds could accompany the stronger storms.
Storms are expected to mostly dissipate around sunset, with lows
tonight in the low to mid 70s.

Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the synoptic pattern
changes very little. Capping appears to be a bit stronger tomorrow
so we may see less in the way of shower and storm development than
today, but cannot completely rule it out. CAMs are focusing their
convective signal across northern Oklahoma where capping is
weakest, so added slight chance (15%) for storms across these
areas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday will be in
the mid 90s east/central and low 100s north/west.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper ridging begins to build eastward this weekend, which should
lower our precipitation chances even further and lead to a warming
trend through early next week. Near triple digit air temperatures
are expected across much of the area through Tuesday, with heat
indices potentially reach 105+ degrees once again, especially
across central/eastern Oklahoma where humidity will be higher.

Models suggest we could see a pattern change towards the middle to
end of next week as the ridge amplifies to our west and troughing
deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely send a cold front
into our area, along with increasing chances for rain and somewhat
cooler temperatures.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Some mid and high clouds will lead to VFR ceilings this TAF
period. Isolated showers/storms could develop later this afternoon
and early evening but chances are too low for mention in any of
the TAFs. Gusty, variable winds will be possible near the stronger
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  97  73  96 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK         71  99  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  99  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           70 102  73 100 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     73 101  75 100 /  10  20  20   0
Durant OK         72  97  73  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25