748
FXUS64 KOUN 121709
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated elevated showers continue across portions of central OK
late this morning. Isolated showers/storms will remain possible
through the afternoon across the fa so added a low chance (~15%).
Most locations will still remain dry but a few could see some rain
this afternoon. If storms get strong enough, gusty winds will
also be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The heat will continue today across the Southern Plains as the
mid-level ridge slowly expands eastward in tandem with a low-level
thermal ridge. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to
mid 100s deg F.

A shortwave trough is resulting in showers and thunderstorms
across southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast
Oklahoma this morning. The greatest ascent from this wave should
remain to our northeast, so kept the forecast dry this morning
(but trends will be monitored). A few showers and thunderstorms
may develop late this afternoon across northern Oklahoma in a
weakly capped environment (~10 to 15% chance at a given location--
so most will remain dry). If thunderstorms develop, gusty winds
is the primary hazard. Any thunderstorms should dissipate during
the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Hot weather will continue through the middle part of next week as
the mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge
continue expand farther to the east. Heat indices by Sunday and
Monday will likely reach 105 deg F or higher in some locations,
which would result in Heat Advisories. The center of the ~595 dam
mid-level is expected to remain across the southwest U.S., so high
temperatures should remain well-below any records. While the
chance for showers and thunderstorms during this period is very
low, it is not zero as a weakly capped environment in southeast
Oklahoma may result in daytime convection (the probability is
<10%) Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

By the latter part of next week (Wednesday and beyond),
deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate the mid-level ridge
will likely amplify and retrograde to the west. As a result, the
Plains would transition to northwest flow aloft. This synoptic-
scale pattern is favorable for MCSs and/or cold fronts to advance
southward into Oklahoma and north Texas. Probabilistic guidance
indicates a reasonable chance that high temperatures will lower
into the upper 80s and low 90s deg F with at least a moderate
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR ceilings this TAF period with some mid clouds. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible into early evening but chances
are low (~15%) so no mention in TAFs at this time. If a storm can
become strong enough, gusty variable winds will be possible near
the storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  73  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK        100  73  98  74 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  99  76 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK          103  73 101  73 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    101  76 101  75 /  20  20   0   0
Durant OK         97  73  98  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25