398
FXUS64 KOUN 130701
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot weather will continue as the Southern Plains will remain on
the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge and attendant low-level
thermal ridge. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to
low 100s deg F.

There is a very low chance the remnants of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing in Kansas could impact north central
Oklahoma later this morning. For late afternoon/early evening, the
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms is lower than recent
days (<10%) with a subtle cap indicated in forecast soundings.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The heat will continue on Sunday with no significant pattern
change. Temperatures might be a couple degrees higher with a
slight increase in 850 mb temperatures. Monday and Tuesday will
likely be hottest days next week as the low-level thermal ridge
advects to the northeast ahead of cold front slowly moving
southward across the Plains.

By Wednesday into Thursday, both deterministic models and
ensemble members indicate a significant pattern change is likely
across the Southern Plains. The mid/upper-level ridge will amplify
across the western U.S., and a mid/upper-level trough will
amplify across the eastern U.S. As a result, the synoptic-scale
pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft across the
Southern Plains. This pattern will allow for a cold front to
advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms and relatively cooler weather--bringing some
relief to the heat.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions with light to moderate southerly winds through the
forecast period. There is a very low chance of showers or
thunderstorms affecting KPNC on Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         98  74  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  75 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  71 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    100  74 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11