960
FXUS64 KOUN 141103
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across southern Kansas
this morning. These appear to be associated with isentropic ascent
that is augmented by the low-level jet. There is a chance (~20%
at a given location) that these showers and storms will impact
northern Oklahoma early this morning before they dissipate.

Otherwise, the hot weather will continue today as the Southern
Plains remains on the eastern periphery of a ~599 dam mid-level
ridge and associated low-level thermal ridge.

The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand
farther to the east today. For example, the 850 mb temperature on
last night`s 00Z Norman Sounding was 20.6 deg C. For this
afternoon, the 850 mb temperature is progged to rise to ~24 deg C
at Norman. As a result, forecast high temperatures are 3 to 5 deg
F higher today. High temperatures should range from the mid 90s
to mid 100s deg F. Air temperatures or heat index values will be
near to above 105 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma,
where a Heat Advisory is in effect.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday and Tuesday will likely be hotter across a larger part of
the area as the low-level thermal ridge advects to the northeast
ahead of cold front slowly moving southward across the Plains.
Heat Advisories will likely be needed on both days. Depending on
the timing the next cold front, a Heat Advisory may also be needed
for parts of the area on Wednesday.

By Wednesday into Thursday, both deterministic models and
ensemble members still indicate a significant pattern change is
likely across the Southern Plains as the synoptic-scale pattern is
forecast to transition to northwest flow as the ridge amplifies
to the west and a trough amplifies to the east.

Northwest flow will allow for a cold front to advance southward
into Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday into Thursday with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass--likely
below average temperatures--will advect southward into the Plains.
Probabilistic guidance indicates a >50% chance that high
temperatures will only be in the 80s deg F across the northern
half of Oklahoma by Thursday. There is a reasonable chance this
pattern will persist into the upcoming weekend with not as hot
weather and a continued chance for rain.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An area of mid-level clouds and some embedded showers is moving
southward out of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma this
morning. Did not include SHRA at the KPNC TAF due to the isolated
nature of the showers, but brief rain is possible at TAF sites.
VFR conditions will prevail regardless, with winds expected to be
out of the southwest this afternoon at 10-15 knots.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  76 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  76 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          105  75 105  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    103  77 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         98  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>013-017>020.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04