945
FXUS61 KOKX 120554
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in from the northeast through
Saturday and remains into Sunday. Meanwhile a thermal trough
develops inland Saturday and Sunday afternoon. High pressure
will remain over the Atlantic through the beginning of next
week. A cold front may approach the area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A weak upper zonal flow will initially be across the northeast
into this evening, and then a weak upper ridge develops as
heights begin to slowly rise overnight. Meanwhile a surface high
will be building into the region from coastal New England.
While there is surface instability and CAPE there is little
forcing and a weak capping inversion for little convection to
develop. The main focus into this evening will be inland with a
surface trough developing. Any storms will be isolated, but
could produce briefly heavy rainfall, with high precipitable
water values and slow moving storms. Storms will then diminish
with the loss of daytime heating.

Then late tonight a weak shortwave moves through the weak upper
ridge, and this may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms
toward Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The weak upper shortwave will move through the area early
Saturday morning, and there will be a brief break in the showers
and thunderstorms until Saturday afternoon as additional upper
energy approaches, and instability increases in the vicinity of
another thermal trough developing inland, where there main focus
of showers and thunderstorms will be. Overall, Saturday
afternoon and evening will be a repeat of Friday
afternoon/evening in regard to precipitation.

Upper ridging will be in place through much of Sunday, with the
ridge axis moving offshore Sunday afternoon with the approach of
a digging upper trough and surface cold front.

Heat indices across the interior both Saturday and Sunday will
peak in the 90 to 95 range, falling below heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be unstable for much of the week with a hot airmass in
place. An upr trof could help trigger shwrs and tstms Mon, then some
ridging ahead of the next sys could limit convection Tue and Wed. A
cold front approaching from the NW could help trigger more extensive
coverage Thu and Fri.

Temps abv normal Tue-Fri, with highs in many spots aoa 90. Thu is
modeled to be the hottest attm with apparent temps around 100 for
nern NJ and the interior.

The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place through Saturday night.

Conditions lowering to MVFR this evening, then IFR overnight,
improving back to MVFR Saturday morning, then VFR Saturday
afternoon. MVFR conditions return Saturday evening, with IFR
conditions Saturday night. PROB30 for shra/tsra at KSWF in the
afternoon.

Winds SE under 10kt, becoming light and variable for outlying
areas Saturday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of lowering flight categories
this tonight. Chance that IFR does not occur at KTEB/KEWR/KLGA.
Timing for improving categories on Saturday could be 1-2 hours
off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR, improving to VFR Sunday
afternoon.

Monday: MVFR or lower in the afternoon and early evening with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a light flow through Sunday winds and seas across the forecast
waters will remain below advisory levels.

A weak pres grad will likely keep winds and seas blw sca lvls
Mon thru the day on Wed. Seas on the ocean may build to sca lvls
Wed ngt thru Fri with a front approaching.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns tonight through Sunday.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
tstms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is moderate through Sunday along Atlantic
facing ocean beaches with onshore flow 5-10 kt and a 3-4 ft
swell from the southeast at a 7 sec Sat, and an added long
period swell on Sun.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...