396
FXUS61 KOKX 301930
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. High pressure then builds in Monday and will remain
in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the
area on Wednesday Night followed by a cold front late in the
week which may remain nearby into the first half of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ***

The main threat from the thunderstorms for the next several
hours until early to mid evening will be from damaging wind
gusts in excess of 58 mph. There is also a risk of hail and an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Another concern
with the convection will be from frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning. SPC continues the enhanced risk across the entire
area, something that doesn`t occur too often for our CWA. The
timing of the highest risk for severe thunderstorms still
appears to be until 7-9pm for E and SE sections, and
increasingly earlier further west, with NW sections ending the
soonest early this evening. The precise timing of the ending of
any significant convection depends on how much convection can
initiate right along the cold front. Confidence around this
remains lows as this gets determined on precisely how much and
exactly where the convective environment gets overturned from
previous storms.

Strong to severe thunderstorms should clear eastern portions of the
CWA for the mid to late evening. The cold front is expected to
move through the NYC metro around 0z, and Central and Eastern LI
towards 1-3z as the cold front is expected to increase in
forward speed. A much drier air mass will ensue with the winds
switching to the NW and becoming more N towards daybreak.
Dewpoints will fall quickly through 60s from NW to SE across the
area. By the pre-dawn hours look for dewpoints to get into the
middle and upper 50s with a more refreshing and comfortable feel
into Monday morning with gusts of 15 to 20 mph in places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During Monday expect a pleasant early summer day. Dewpoint
readings should remain primarily in the 50s with temperatures
a few degrees below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s for the
afternoon. With the strong synoptic flow out of the N there is
little chance for sea breeze development. Forecast soundings
indicate some scattered cloud development in the 5 to 7 kft
level with any daytime heating towards the late morning and
afternoon. Otherwise expect a partly to mostly sunny day with a
refreshing breeze out of the N.

The pressure gradient relaxes Monday night with high pressure
starting to settle just west of the area. With light winds and
likely just a few clouds around 5 kft expect some radiational
cooling across outlying areas. Temperatures should be able to
fall into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest spots, with
lower to middle 60s for the metro and along much of the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes were made to the Long Term and closely followed the
NBM.

High pressure will remain in control Tuesday and Wednesday before
shifting offshore Wednesday night as a warm front lifts to the
north. A cold front will follow, but will likely not move through
the area and may remain to our north into early next weekend. Will
have to watch the evolution of any middle level impulses as they
ride along the periphery of the ridge. These are difficult to
resolve at this time range, but they may be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Right now the consensus of the modeling indicates a
bit higher probability on Friday and potentially Saturday compared
to Thursday.

Temperatures remain seasonable on Wednesday. The deterministic NBM
has trended down a bit for the end of the week, but still should
reach above normal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
away from the coast. Similar readings are expected through Saturday.
Humidity levels will also be on the rise for the end of the week
into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough moving across the area this afternoon will
be followed by a cold front moving across this evening.

Some MVFR conditions linger across some of the coastal terminals
this afternoon due to low stratus. MVFR or lower conditions
will be possible with some thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected during the
TAF period late this evening through Monday.

Two rounds of thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon and
evening. The first of these with the pre-frontal trough should
impact the Hudson Valley terminals until near 21Z, the NYC
metros until near 21Z, and out east across Long Island/CT
until near 22Z. The second round with the cold front should occur
mainly this evening, impacting the NYC metros from 22Z-23Z
until 01Z-02Z, once again about an hour earlier to the NW and an
hour or two later to the E. Stronger cells with either round
could produce strong W-NW winds, mentioned in the 1st round of
thunderstorms in TAFs with potential for 35 kt, and possibly
brief 50 kt gusts. These strong gusts are also possible with 2nd
round of thunderstorms but not explicitly mentioned in TAFs
yet.

Outside of tstms, SW winds will be around 10 kt with some gusts
near 20 kt into early this evening. After the cold front
passage, winds shift to NW and remain near 10 kt with gusts
lingering as well to near 20 kt. Winds become more NNW-N
direction Monday with wind speeds near 10-15 kt and gusts near
20-25 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Strong wind gusts possible with any tstm directly impacting the
terminals this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday through Wednesday: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday early evening.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with any late day or nighttime
showers/tstms.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and
tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Besides any thunderstorms this evening that may bring locally higher
winds and seas for the evening hours, expect sub small craft
conditions for the non-ocean waters and more marginal small craft
conditions for the ocean waters as the winds quickly switch to the
NW and N behind a cold frontal passage for tonight. On Monday high
pressure builds with slowly subsiding seas with mainly sub small
craft conditions, although the winds will be gusting close to 20 kt
throughout all waters. The pressure gradient relaxes Monday night as
north winds lighten and ocean seas subside closer to 2 ft towards
early Tuesday morning.

Sub advisory conditions will remain through at least Wednesday night
for all waters as high pressure settles over the waters, then moves
offshore. Marginal small craft conditions become more likely late
Thursday as a southerly flow increases, with possible small craft
seas on the ocean into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Besides any localized hydrological impacts from any stronger storms
this evening, no hydrological impacts are expected Monday through
Wednesday. A frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough are likely to
approach late Thursday into Friday, and possibly linger to begin
next weekend. It remains too early to determine the risk of any
hydrological impacts from this frontal system.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate rip current risk on Monday with a lingering
S to SE swell. A low rip current risk is anticipated for
Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...