258
FXUS61 KOKX 300753
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain nearby today, before lifting north as
a warm front tonight into Tuesday. A cold front approaches later
Tuesday and pivots through late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. A cold front approaches and moves through late
Thursday into Thursday night, followed by high pressure
returning Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect a typical warm and humid summer day region wide. The region
will be just north or along the northern periphery of a stalled
frontal boundary to the immediate south. Dew point readings will be
primarily in the middle and upper 60s through the early afternoon. A
sea breeze gets going for the afternoon and will usher in slightly
higher moisture values with dew points approaching 70 late in the
day and evening along far southern locations. Forecast soundings are
suggestive of a fair amount of instability for today. However there
appears to be a lack of a focusing mechanism for convection for much
of the day. Towards late in the day (around or shortly after 20z) a
few of the convective allowing model guidance (CAMs) hint at
convection attempting to initiate along a convergence zone for the SW
portion of the CWA. Have slight chance to low end chance PoPs
towards Staten Island and southern portions of NE NJ with the
possibility of a few late day showers / t-storms. Otherwise it
should be a mainly dry day, just seasonably warm and humid.

Just south of the frontal boundary in the warm sector dew point
readings are even higher, mainly in the 70s. During tonight NWP is
confident that the warm front lifts north. As it does so the chances
for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms increases. The chance
will be relatively higher for the western half of the area.
Precipitable water values get to climatologically significant
values, above 2 inches, and to around 2.25 inches after midnight.
The CAM guidance is disagreeing on the extent of coverage, but any
showers and stronger storms could put down a quick inch plus of rain
locally due to high instantaneous rainfall rates. After 06z the
entire region goes to chance PoPs with chance thunder with the warm
front pushing north into the region and a southerly flow becoming
more southwest as the front gets through towards or just before
daybreak. By Tuesday morning dew point readings should be in the
lower and middle 70s on the other side of the warm front, thus
becoming even more humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A muggy and mostly cloudy start to Tuesday is expected with the
remnants of any early morning shower / t-storm activity lingering.
By late morning and midday enough breaks of sun should take place to
get temperatures rather warm. Temperatures should get well into the
80s in most places, with the urban corridor of NE NJ getting to
lower 90s, and around 90 for portions of NYC. With dew point
readings mainly in the lower half of the 70s, heat indices should
get into the middle and upper 90s. A few spots will flirt with heat
indices around 100, but coverage and confidence is lacking at this
time so will hold off on any heat advisory issuance for the urban
corridor at this time. A cold front off to the west approaches with
showers and storms likely initiating along the pre-frontal trough
and back to the west along the cold front itself. NWP appears a bit
slower with the progression of the boundary, thus ramp up PoPs and
thunder chances later in the afternoon, and into the evening further
east across the area. SPC has much of the region in a marginal risk
of severe weather, with a slight risk touching far western portions
of the CWA. There will be plenty of instability with MLCAPE values
getting to around 2000 J/kg via most forecast soundings, at least
for the western 1/3rd of the area, with instability slightly less
further east. What appears to be marginal are mid level lapse rates
and bulk shear values. Trends in these parameters will have to be
monitored going forward to evaluate any increase in the severe
potential. Guidance is suggestive of a uniform flow for the most
part throughout the column out of the southwest. Potential hazards
with any storms would be strong to potentially severe winds and
heavy rain. The hail threat appears a bit more limited compared to
the wind threat. For now have held off on any enhanced wording
related to hazards as uncertainty around severe hazards remains high.

The cold front gets further east later Tuesday night. Showers and
storms are likely through the evening, with chances trailing off
getting towards and after 06z. With front appearing a bit slower
now, shower chances carry into early Wednesday morning for far
eastern sections. A warm and muggy night with minimum temperatures
in the upper 60s well northwest, to mostly lower 70s closer to the
coast.

On Wednesday there remains some question as to how far southeast the
frontal boundary ultimately gets. It should press southeast enough
to get a drier westerly wind in for the mid to late morning as dew
points are progged to get back into the 60s. Still humid, just not
quite as muggy. Look for mostly sunny skies into the afternoon hours
as clouds could linger for a bit for Eastern LI. Temperatures will
be seasonably warm with mostly middle and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
h5 flow becomes cyclonic Wednesday night through Thursday as a
closed low dives SE through Quebec. The associated trough axis and
surface cold front shift through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon into night, and this will bring the chance of a shower or
thunderstorm to the area during this time.

Good agreement among the global models and ensembles regarding the
h5 pattern for Friday through Sunday. Ridging begins on Friday with
an axis shifting east and reaching the Northeast on Sunday, but
flattening a little as it does so. Thinking is that this should help
prevent showers from popping up as models also agree in the absence
of strong shortwaves and sufficient moisture. Have therefore removed
the chances of showers that NBM was producing during the day on
Sunday. 4th of July is still shaping up to be mostly sunny during
the day with comfortable humidity levels, and mostly clear during
the evening.

NBM looked good for temperatures for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure weakens today with a warm front approaching from
the south tonight.

VFR through the daytime. MVFR possible this evening, but more
likely occurring after around midnight tonight with showers. IFR
east of the city terminals late tonight. Thunder possible
anytime starting this evening, however probability is too low to
include in TAFs.

Light NE to variable winds through most of the morning push,
becoming SE this afternoon 5-10kt, then more southerly late in
the day. S to SW winds 10kt or less tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and MVFR. Iso
shra/tstm possible as early as 20-21z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR/IFR. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR through mid-morning with a shower/tstm
possible. VFR thereafter with a chance of MVFR or lower in
afternoon and evening showers and possible thunderstorms.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: A slight chance of an afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm with brief MVFR or lower possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions will be in place today into tonight with
ocean seas mainly at 2 to 3 ft. As a cold front approaches Tuesday a
southerly flow increases and ocean seas will build mostly to 4 to 6
ft and gusts to around 25 kt resulting in small craft conditions on
the ocean, with sub advisory conditions likely remaining on the
western non-ocean waters. Some of eastern non-ocean waters will have
marginal small craft gusts and may eventually need advisories for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. By later Wednesday morning in the
wake of the cold front sub advisory conditions should return on the
ocean with a W to SW wind and ocean seas mainly around 4 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Wednesday night through Sunday
with a lack of any strong pressure gradients over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There remains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall via WPC for the
a good portion of the region Tuesday. With high precipitable water
in place instantaneous rain rates are likely to be high, leading to
a localized risk of flash flooding in association with any stronger
thunderstorms. The overall risk of flash flooding looks limited in
coverage, and should remain localized and confined mostly to urban
poor drainage locations.

No hydrologic concerns thereafter.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip current development across the ocean
beaches today. There is a high risk of rip currents on Tuesday,
especially in the afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT
     Tuesday night for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...