397
FXUS61 KOKX 070903
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
503 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary or surface trough will remain in close
proximity to the area to into Tuesday. A series of frontal
boundaries will then impact the region for much of the week and
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front across eastern LI into SE CT will stall close
to the area, or may back up before washing out across the area.
Regardless, there will be a thermal trough which sets up each
afternoon. Aloft, a longwave trough will be centered across the
mid section of the country, with the subtropical high anchored
over the western Atlantic. This will keep the area above normal
and humid. In addition, expect the forecast area to be largely
capped.

With the aforementioned boundary and greatest instability along
the coast, latest CAMs do so show a few weak showers and/or
thunderstorms today. For the time though, will keep the mention
out due to a mid level cap and relatively dry low-levels with
inverted-V type soundings.

Along the coast, especially across eastern LI/SE CT, areas of
fog will continue into the morning, with some of it locally
dense. This will likely be the theme in coming nights across LI
and coastal CT. It may however fall short of reaching the NYC
metro.

Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
warmest across the urban corridor and into the interior. The
immediate south shore of LI will be cooler due to onshore flow
and the possibility of low clouds/fog. Heat indices will be
lower today due to some drier air being mixed to the surface
with dew points across the warmest locations dropping into the
upper 60s. Coastal locations will generally remain in the lower
70s. Heat indices will encroach upon 95, particularly in the NYC
metro. It is marginal though and have held off on an advisory.
Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a chance
of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential
localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

A strong band of anomalous moisture may set up along a stalled
front Thursday and/or Friday with the chance for moderate to heavy
rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is still low, but should
become more confident in the coming days. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 60s/lower 70s outside of metro NYC, where it will
be close to the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change during this time as the upper air pattern
features a longwave trough centered over the mid section of the
country and a subtropical high over the western Atlantic. There
will be a gradual eastward translation during this time. Very
warm and humid conditions will persist. Dew points will come
back up everywhere into the lower 70s. There is increasing
likelihood of widespread 95 or higher heat indices, especially
from NYC and points north and west. Heat advisories may be
issued later today for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Fog/stratus will continue during the overnights across LI and
coastal CT. Some of this may begin to expand farther in from the
coast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Warm season fog
typically is more of a coastal issue due to the warm, humid air
moving across the cooler nearshore waters. However, with dew
points in the lower 70s, light winds, and mainly clear skies, it
may be factor even inland.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be reintroduced Tuesday
afternoon as the airmass moistens and destabilizes. Best chances
will be north and west of the NYC metro. Moderate cape, weak
shear environment favors slow moving cells with the potential
for downpours and pulse severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday
night with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing under a
mid-level ridge. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s to low-90s.

Beryl, which is currently on track to make landfall in Texas, is
predicted by the NHC to rapidly weaken and devolve into a post-
tropical depression by the time it reaches Arkansas late Tuesday.
From there it will weaken further and track towards and through the
Great Lakes region on Thursday and Friday before dissolving
completely. At the same time, a strong subtropical high over the
Atlantic will be located directly to our east. The pressure gradient
between these two opposing systems may lead to a 30-40 kt LLJ jet
developing over our region Thursday and/or Friday which could lead
to stronger S-SW flow with breezy winds. Blended NBM with NBM 90th
to show the possibly increasing wind gusts in this time frame,
bringing gusts of around 20-25 mph. The persistent S-SW flow created
by these two systems could lead to a conveyer belt of moisture being
advected into our region sourced from Florida and Georgia. The
advection of moisture up the East Coast shows up well on GFS`s IVT &
IWV (Integrated Water Vapor Transport & Integrated Water Vapor)
which is a product meant to visualize atmospheric rivers. Overall,
Anomalous to very anomalous PWATs max out around 2.2-2.7" depending
on what model you look at. Exact values aside, ample moisture is
expected to linger over the region Thursday and/or Friday. A stalled
front expected to be over the region will help add lift and provide
the decent chances for rain and/or convection. The problem is
Beryl`s track and timing varies depending on what model you look at.
The belt of moisture seen on global guidance also appears to be very
narrow, so the location of potential heavy rainfall versus scattered
rain and thunderstorms is hard to pinpoint this far out in time. For
now, capped POPs at high-end chance on Thursday and Friday. Timing
and location of rainfall will become better resolved by the models
in the coming days.

Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected this weekend with a stalled
frontal boundary persisting Saturday and possibly dissipating
Sunday, allowing for more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Temperatures late week into the start of the weekend are expected to
reach the low/mid-80s then return into the mid-80s to low-90s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal system stalls near or over the terminals today through
Monday.

NYC terminals are still VFR KJFK and KLGA are no longer expected to
drop below VFR this morning. KGON will be socked in the rest of the
early morning at LIFR, with VLIFR, at times. Improvement there
around 14Z to MVFR in haze. KISP will be IFR to LIFR through 12Z,
then becoming VFR. Will see a repeat Sunday night with more LIFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys.

An isolated shower is currently heading to KEWR and is in TAFs
through 10Z. Other NYC terminals only have VCSH through this
timeframe. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable enough
to include in TAFs.

Light southerly winds expected early this morning with many
terminals light and variable. Light flow, possibly NE, will occur
Sunday morning before shifting to the SE-S late morning into the
afternoon 10 kt or less. Winds become light and variable again
Sunday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence in lower ceilings occurring is low early this morning.
Amendments may be needed.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable enough
to include in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Thursday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with
showers/thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Some locally dense fog remains possible, mainly across Eastern
Long Island Sound and ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. A
marine weather statement remains out to address this. This may
need to be extended into this afternoon.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the
waters are expected to be below small craft advisory thresholds
to start the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon, SCA conditions are
expected on ocean waters with waves 4-6 feet, with near SCA gusts
possible on either Thursday or Friday. The rest of the weekend sub-
SCA conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday night.

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system will
bring a chance of minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential
localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon/evening to the north
and west of NYC.

A strong band of anomalous moisture may set up along a stalled
front Thursday and/or Friday with the chance for moderate to heavy
rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is still low, but should
become more confident in the coming days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast Sunday at the ocean
beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around
3-4 ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous
day but with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft,
there will be a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...