713
FXUS64 KOHX 062322
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and
  continued hot. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the
  afternoon and early evening. The risk of severe weather is low.

- Slightly better rain chances Monday and Tuesday than we`ve see
  the last couple of days, but medium to high thunderstorm
  chances return for the second half of the week. Severe weather
  risk remains low.

- Afternoon heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s
  today through Tuesday across most of Middle Tennessee west of
  the Cumberland Plateau, with the heat easing up starting on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Lots of sun out there and temperatures have already climbed well
into the 80s at forecast time today. Expectations are for
diurnally driven thunderstorms to start popping up this afternoon
with slightly better coverage than we`ve seen the last couple of
days. The bottom line is (and likely will be for the next few
days) that not everyone will see rain. Thunderstorm initiation
will depend greatly on various mesoscale boundaries, the location
of which is difficult to discern early in the day. If you have
outdoor plans this afternoon, keep an eye to the sky as any storms
that do develop will run the risk of copious lightning, gusty
winds and gushing rainfall for a brief period of time. Storms
should wane in the evening, leaving clear skies and a setup for
morning fog tomorrow, especially those areas that see rain today.

Of note, temperatures this afternoon and again tomorrow will
continue to run in the low to mid 90s. With dew points in the low
70s, afternoon Heat Index values will run around 100 degrees. Take
the necessary precautions to protect yourself and others from heat
related illnesses if you intend to be outside for prolonged periods
of time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be much of the same as synoptic
features/forcing are greatly lacking. General weaknesses in the
upper level pattern will provide additional low to medium diurnal
thunderstorm chances to start the week and similar to today, weak
wind fields and high PW values will open the door for anyone who
sees a storm to experience gusty winds, lots of lightning and brief
heavy rainfall. On the whole, severe weather chances will be very
low each day.

As we roll into the second half of the upcoming week, models across
the board indicate slightly more troughiness and some height falls
across the region. This should open the door for more widespread
diurnal thunderstorms each day starting on Wednesday. Forecast
soundings remain unimpressive regarding any severe weather chances,
so this is good news, however each afternoon/evening will present a
medium to high chance of thunderstorms with similar concerns of
lightning/gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall as we expect early in
the week. If there`s any good news, this late-week troughing should
allow for afternoon highs to relax back into the low 90s each day.
This would put us much closer to seasonal afternoon highs than we
should see today and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the taf period. There
is a low chance that fog impacts CSV/SRB periodically after 08z
through 12-13z. Diurnal thunderstorms will develop again after
16-17z on Monday with a low chance (<20%) of impacting a terminal.
The mention of thunder was left out of the tafs for now. Winds
will be less than 5 kts overnight before increasing to 4-8 kts out
of the SW after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  74  93 /   0  60  40  70
Clarksville    73  91  73  90 /  10  60  40  60
Crossville     67  89  67  88 /  10  40  30  70
Columbia       72  93  72  92 /   0  40  30  70
Cookeville     69  89  70  88 /   0  40  30  70
Jamestown      69  89  68  88 /   0  40  30  70
Lawrenceburg   71  92  71  91 /   0  40  30  70
Murfreesboro   72  94  72  93 /   0  50  40  70
Waverly        71  90  72  90 /  10  50  40  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan