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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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084 FXUS64 KOHX 141645 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Some light showers continue to work their way out of the mid state this morning ahead of a weak upper shortwave moving through the area. We should remain dry for the most part tonight with some patchy fog developing along rivers and in low lying valleys tonight. Models have backed off on higher precip chances during the day Thursday, with low chances for isolated showers and storms during the daytime Thursday. Some CAMs do show isolated activity associated with another weak shortwave, but most of the convection stays to our north during the day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A stronger shortwave in addition to a stronger upper closed low over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday will help generate more widespread showers and thunderstorms to our northwest, and moving southeast into the mid state Friday morning. We will have some decent instability in place, so strong to severe storms will be possible Friday morning, however models continue to show that activity weakening as it moves into our area. It looks like we will get a break in the rain mid day Friday before another round of showers and storms develops in the afternoon and evening. Depending on how long the morning convection hangs around could limit the severe potential for the afternoon round. but with plenty of warm and moist air around, especially if clouds break, we will have ingredients in place Friday afternoon for some strong to severe storms should they develop. Once CAMs get in range we should hopefully have a better idea of timing and any potential for strong to severe storms during the day Friday. Saturday will have additional showers and storms, especially during the afternoon in the southern and eastern zones, as a cold front moves through the area. Some instability exists ahead of the front in the morning, but not much hangs around for the afternoon, so as of right now the strong to severe threat is low on Saturday. But any slow down of the front would increase chances for stronger storms Saturday, so stay tuned. As the strong upper low continues eastward into the NE CONUS, a strong upper high develops out west in the southern high Plains. This will keep the mid state in northerly/NW flow through next week, which should keep us cooler and potentially drier. But, any subtle shortwave activity aloft with diurnal support could yield some afternoon pop up showers and storms. For now, kept next week dry in the forecast until confidence increases with ensembles in the extended. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions thru 15/12Z. Per proximity to light shwr activity, vcnty of shwrs CKV with overcast stratus around 4 kft thru 04/17Z. Some low/mid level cloudiness, with broken ceilings around 5kft possible thru 14/19Z along with patches of bkn ci as NWLY flow pattern aloft prevails BNA/MQY. Drier airmass continues to be expected across SRB/CSV with bkn high level ci at times. Sfc winds generally light & variable thru 15/12Z. Per communication issues continuance, continued AMD NOT SKED SRB/CSV thru 15/12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 70 95 76 / 0 0 10 40 Clarksville 89 67 93 74 / 0 0 20 70 Crossville 86 62 86 67 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 91 68 95 74 / 30 0 10 30 Cookeville 86 66 88 71 / 0 0 10 40 Jamestown 86 63 87 69 / 0 0 10 50 Lawrenceburg 88 67 93 73 / 40 0 10 30 Murfreesboro 91 67 94 74 / 0 0 10 30 Waverly 87 69 94 74 / 40 0 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....JB Wright