071
FXUS64 KOHX 271950
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
250 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- The heat advisory will expire at 7 PM tonight.

- A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today with damaging
  winds and flash flooding being the primary threats.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of next
  week with an overall low severe threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Storms so far have produced gusty winds near 50 mph, small hail
and very heavy rainfall with upwards of 3 inches per hour. Please
use extreme caution this afternoon as flash flooding will remain a
concern. Current mesoanalysis features a very summertime setup
with lapse rates less than 10 kts and CAPEs over 3000 J/kg.
Outflows being pushed out are helping trigger additional storm
development so radar will stay busy over the next few hours.
Activity will diminish this evening as we lose daytimes heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

With an unstable atmosphere already in place, storms are starting to
develop in southern middle Tennessee. The severe threat is low with
lapse rates and shear being insufficient. A model sounding shows
PWATs high at 1.84in and a healthy amount of CAPE and DCAPE which
supports the biggest threat today being gusty winds (45-65mph)
and heavy downpours. Some areas where storms are frequent could
experience localized flooding in low lying areas. Storms diminish
into the evening and storm chances return tomorrow.

Heat continues to be a threat for today with the highs in the mid
90s, saturated dewpoints, and tonight we cool to the upper 70s. We
are living up to the "Dog Days of Summer".

Moving into Saturday, the highs will be in the upper 80s with some
areas reaching ~90. The heat is expected to be less oppressive than
the previous few days as the ridge over the northeast moves eastward
and the current high pressure will weaken. Things will remain
unstable and, similar to today, there is a possibilty of
widespread scattered storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The extended forecast will remain unsettled through at least the
first half of the week with daily scattered strong thunderstorm
chances. The pattern will remain similar with plenty of instability
and moisture for storms to pulse up quite fast. PWAT values will
remain above the 75th percentile for local climatology during this
time, so storms will continue to have efficient rainfall rates,
keeping flash flooding a threat with any storms that develop. An
upper level low will move across the Great Lakes Monday, bringing a
higher chance for widespread rain and storms during the Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday timeframe. Deterministic models
are currently trying to resolve this in what appears to be a line
of storms, but we are still a ways out from this, so things could
change. On top of that, winds aloft during that time currently
appear to be quite weak, leading to low shear values, so the
severe weather threat at this time remains low. Regardless, will
be worth keeping an eye on. On Tuesday, a frontal passage will
occur as the trough axis moves through the area. A ridge of higher
pressure will move in behind the exiting trough, allowing for PoP
chances to greatly decrease down to roughly 10-20% Wednesday
through Friday.

Temperatures will be near normal next week with daily highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the afternoon
and early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the next
24hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  92  73  90 /  20  40  20  70
Clarksville    73  90  73  88 /  20  40  30  70
Crossville     66  85  67  85 /  30  60  20  60
Columbia       71  90  71  88 /  20  40  30  70
Cookeville     70  86  70  86 /  30  50  20  60
Jamestown      67  85  68  87 /  30  60  20  60
Lawrenceburg   69  90  70  88 /  20  50  30  70
Murfreesboro   71  90  71  89 /  20  40  20  70
Waverly        71  90  70  86 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...LC/APB
LONG TERM....LC/APB
AVIATION.....Cravens