084
FXUS64 KOHX 141645
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Some light showers continue to work their way out of the mid state
this morning ahead of a weak upper shortwave moving through the
area. We should remain dry for the most part tonight with some
patchy fog developing along rivers and in low lying valleys
tonight. Models have backed off on higher precip chances during
the day Thursday, with low chances for isolated showers and storms
during the daytime Thursday. Some CAMs do show isolated activity
associated with another weak shortwave, but most of the convection
stays to our north during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A stronger shortwave in addition to a stronger upper closed low
over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday will help generate
more widespread showers and thunderstorms to our northwest, and
moving southeast into the mid state Friday morning. We will have
some decent instability in place, so strong to severe storms will
be possible Friday morning, however models continue to show that
activity weakening as it moves into our area. It looks like we
will get a break in the rain mid day Friday before another round
of showers and storms develops in the afternoon and evening.
Depending on how long the morning convection hangs around could
limit the severe potential for the afternoon round. but with
plenty of warm and moist air around, especially if clouds break,
we will have ingredients in place Friday afternoon for some strong
to severe storms should they develop. Once CAMs get in range we
should hopefully have a better idea of timing and any potential
for strong to severe storms during the day Friday.

Saturday will have additional showers and storms, especially
during the afternoon in the southern and eastern zones, as a cold
front moves through the area. Some instability exists ahead of the
front in the morning, but not much hangs around for the afternoon,
so as of right now the strong to severe threat is low on Saturday.
But any slow down of the front would increase chances for stronger
storms Saturday, so stay tuned.

As the strong upper low continues eastward into the NE CONUS, a
strong upper high develops out west in the southern high Plains.
This will keep the mid state in northerly/NW flow through next
week, which should keep us cooler and potentially drier. But, any
subtle shortwave activity aloft with diurnal support could yield
some afternoon pop up showers and storms. For now, kept next week
dry in the forecast until confidence increases with ensembles in
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions thru 15/12Z. Per proximity to light shwr activity,
vcnty of shwrs CKV with overcast stratus around 4 kft thru
04/17Z. Some low/mid level cloudiness, with broken ceilings around
5kft possible thru 14/19Z along with patches of bkn ci as NWLY
flow pattern aloft prevails BNA/MQY. Drier airmass continues to be
expected across SRB/CSV with bkn high level ci at times. Sfc
winds generally light & variable thru 15/12Z. Per communication
issues continuance, continued AMD NOT SKED SRB/CSV thru 15/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  70  95  76 /   0   0  10  40
Clarksville    89  67  93  74 /   0   0  20  70
Crossville     86  62  86  67 /   0   0  10  30
Columbia       91  68  95  74 /  30   0  10  30
Cookeville     86  66  88  71 /   0   0  10  40
Jamestown      86  63  87  69 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   88  67  93  73 /  40   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   91  67  94  74 /   0   0  10  30
Waverly        87  69  94  74 /  40   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....JB Wright