162
FXUS64 KOHX 041145
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
645 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper level ridge will start to flatten out today but we are still
in for another hot one. Afternoon highs will push into the low to
mid 90s with afternoon heat index values as highs as 110. If you
have outdoor plans for the 4th you will want take precautions from
the heat and make sure that you are staying hydrated. There are
storms over KY early this morning, those will continue to push
east staying to our north. There are additional storms to our
northwest associated with a short wave trough. This complex of
storms will push east through the morning and should make it to KY
by the late morning early afternoon. Boundaries with this complex
will help to kick off scattered thunderstorms for us for the
afternoon and early evening. The best thunderstorm chances will be
west of I-65. We will see plenty of CAPE but shear and lapse
rates aren`t great, this will limit the severe potential. With the
higher CAPE and PWATs as highs as 2.0" we still could see some
gusty winds 40-60 mph with thunderstorms along with heavy rain.
Most thunderstorm activity will diminish by 7 PM and we should see
quiet weather for any firework shows but it will be hot and
humid.

Short wave trough will continue to push east tonight into Friday
pushing a cold front into the region. This will bring another
round of shower and thunderstorms starting just before daybreak in
western areas. These thunderstorms will continue to push east
through the morning. Depending on where the front is we may see
some additional storms develop in eastern areas in the afternoon.
Strong storms are unlikely on Friday but still can`t rule out
isolated gusty winds. Heavy rain will continue to be likely with
any thunderstorms. Most areas will get to around 90 on Friday and
it will remain very humid.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Drier air will build in behind the front and we are looking at a
nice weekend across Middle TN. Dew points will be falling into the
60s which will be a huge improvement from our current dew points.
Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For next week we will
see ridging build to our east with troughing developing over the
Great Lakes. This will bring the return of humid conditions with
dew points pushing back above 70. We will also see shower and
thunderstorm chances each day. The majority of the forcing will
remain to our north and that will keep activity scattered and not
widespread. Highs will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Skies are dry and mostly clear this morning with light south winds
starting to pick up. We should see winds gradually turn out of the
southwest and remain below 10 knots today. This afternoon`s storm
chances are highly uncertain. There is some indication that storms
will be more isolated than previously thought. Left tempo groups
in for the most likely timing of precip this afternoon. Any
activity should taper off by 00z, then another wave of showers may
move into CKV, BNA, and MQY after 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  77  90  70 /  40  50  90  10
Clarksville    92  74  86  66 /  50  70  80   0
Crossville     90  71  87  65 /  30  40 100  50
Columbia       97  76  91  68 /  30  40  90  10
Cookeville     91  73  86  67 /  30  50  90  40
Jamestown      89  73  85  66 /  40  50  90  40
Lawrenceburg   96  75  91  68 /  30  30  90  20
Murfreesboro   97  76  92  68 /  30  40  90  20
Waverly        94  73  87  67 /  40  60  80   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead