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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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832 FXUS64 KOHX 150142 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 842 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Not much change in the weather pattern from last night. This will bring similar conditions tonight to what we saw last night but it does look like it will be a few degrees warmer and maybe slightly more humid. We did see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, any that are left will diminish over the next hour or so and we will then see dry conditions overnight. Overall fog chances will be low but some patchy fog will still be possible mainly in areas that saw some rain today. Not a whole lot of change in the pattern for tomorrow, we do look to be a bit more humid and that may keep highs a degree or two lower. We should mix out some in the afternoon lowering the dew points a bit, that should keep us just below heat advisory with heat index values 100-105. Widely scattered popup storms seem likely again in the afternoon once again favoring areas from I-40 south. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Late morning temperatures are into the lower 90s. The dewpoints have remained in the upper 60s to near 70, yielding a modest but positive HI influence. An area of surface high pressure does reside across northern middle TN and should help to yield a tendency toward subsidence in the afternoon. 18Z cap strengths to diminish so we could again see some isolated convection across our south. Pattern looks similar again for Monday with slightly stronger late afternoon lift phasing with an increase in moisture across our south. Maybe some scattered convection late in the day. Tuesday is not looking that active either. Although, there is a slight uptick of convection as some upper shortwave amplification is indicated. For the near term temps, still looking rather hot although latest NBM numbers have backed down a degree or two. The lower level trajectory appears to remain land locked just enough to prevent an upward spike in dewpoints. So for the above reasons, will refrain from any heat advisory issuance for Monday. As additional data comes in, however, the advisory may be issued soon. Otherwise, high temperatures still look like upper 90s to near 100 and max heat index values close to 105F. Tuesday may include a slight increase in humidity as lower level wind trajectories become more favorable. HI values may tick upward a degree or two. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 In the extended forecast, not much has changed as the pattern becomes increasingly active. A frontal boundary is still expected to drop slowly southward and give us some likely pops for the midweek timeframe. Then as we transition into late week and the weekend, some pronounced troughing will persist across the region with the axis located along the lower and mid MS valleys. So, rain chances to persist daily with our overall qpf totals chiming in at around a 1/2 inch west to up to 1 1/2 inches east. For our extended temps, one more hot day on Wednesday with the front approaching. At that time we should see highs in the mid 90s. Following this, a welcomed break from the heat is expected as highs drop down in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will drop into the upper 60s. This is very close to normal, perhaps a degree or two below. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours with light winds. Monday afternoon will bring more pop up thunderstorms. It looks like the best chance will be S and E of BNA so included VCTS for CSV, SRB, and MQY given the isolated nature of storms that might pop up. Predominate winds will be out of the SW Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 99 77 98 / 10 20 10 30 Clarksville 73 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 20 Crossville 68 92 69 90 / 20 30 10 50 Columbia 72 97 75 98 / 20 20 10 40 Cookeville 70 92 72 92 / 10 30 10 40 Jamestown 69 92 70 90 / 0 20 10 40 Lawrenceburg 72 96 73 96 / 20 30 10 40 Murfreesboro 73 99 75 98 / 20 30 10 40 Waverly 72 96 75 97 / 0 10 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Cravens