Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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968 FXUS64 KOHX 161702 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 There`s been quite a bit of cloud cover around this morning thanks to yesterday`s Midwest MCS. An outflow boundary moved from north to south this morning through the CWA with showers and storms developing along and south of that boundary now from Perry to Warren County. I will let the Heat Advisory limp along but it may be a struggle reaching criteria for most of the area. Visible satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105. One thing we`ll need to watch this afternoon is for storm development along the stationary boundary that is over eastern Missouri into southern Indiana. Some storms could develop along that and move south and eastward toward our northwestern counties. The CAMS have been inconsistent in the development and movement of this activity. If storms do develop and make a run for our area, there will be ample CAPE available and the storms could pose a damaging wind threat. There should be a break in activity overnight before more storms develop on Wednesday with a surface front draped over the area. Shear will still be on the weak side on Wednesday but once again, there will be ample instability. A couple storms may produce gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The surface boundary will linger around the area on Thursday continuing the storms chances across the area. The front will push far enough south Thursday night to bring an end to the storm chances for a day. Friday looks like the nicest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 60s. There is a chance of an afternoon shower or storm Friday afternoon but that will be confined along the southern plateau. The front will creep back northwest on Saturday into Sunday bringing back rain chances. Those scattered storm chances continue into next week. Hopefully, most of the area can pick up an inch or two through the next seven days to help put a small dent in this flash drought. As far as temperatures, once we get past this afternoon, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to perhaps to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR. Confidence remains low on showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon today, with CAMs not showing any consistency on coverage or location. Kept out mention of TSRA this afternoon, but KCSV/KSRB may see some isolated activity around terminals this afternoon. A line of showers and storms may hold together long enough to impact KCKV late this evening into the overnight hours, and could make it to KBNA/KMQY, but just have mention at KCKV for now. Expect southwest/westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots during the day, becoming light and variable after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 98 77 94 73 / 20 30 70 60 Clarksville 93 74 88 70 / 10 50 80 70 Crossville 90 69 89 66 / 40 30 80 70 Columbia 96 74 95 71 / 20 20 70 60 Cookeville 92 72 89 69 / 40 40 80 70 Jamestown 90 70 87 67 / 40 40 90 70 Lawrenceburg 95 73 94 70 / 20 20 70 60 Murfreesboro 97 75 95 71 / 20 20 80 60 Waverly 94 73 89 70 / 10 30 70 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham- Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis- Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith- Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Barnwell