165
FXUS64 KOHX 181624
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The surface boundary has been making slow southeasterly progress
this morning with some light showers ahead of it. Behind the
front, winds have turned northerly with stratocu keeping the
temperatures in the 70s. Over the last hour some sunshine has
peeked out over Stewart and part of Montgomery counties. Some of
that sunshine will progress southeast through the afternoon. Along
with the sunshine, some lower dew points will also move in from
upstream. Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s.
Look for some of those reading in our northwest this afternoon.
Shower chances should clear our area this evening as the front
moves far enough south, but that will be temporary. A wave will
eject out of the deep south Friday morning pushing the boundary
back north and bringing the storms chances back with it. This will
not be areawide but mainly confined to the south and the plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long term forecast continues to look wet with temperatures
slightly below normal which is good news for our fresh drought
problem. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad
troughing with southwesterly flow in our area. The surface
boundary will lift back northward on Saturday and by Sunday the
front will be back north of the area with ample moisture streaming
into the area. The southwesterly upper flow continues into next
week with our area being on the western fringes of the Bermuda
high and some weak troughing to the north. This will leave us
unsettled with some small disturbances moving through the flow.
Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day through
the extended forecast. Shear will be weak each day, so no
organized severe threats are expected but rain will be heavy at
times. I know some locations missed out on yesterday`s rain, but
hopefully this pattern will help make up for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Other than CKV, iso/sct shwrs across area. Forecast confidence
still not high enough to mention shwrs prevailing/temporary
terminal impacts, can not rule out vcnty development/movement.
Forecast confidence still not high enough to forecast tstms
prevailing, temporary, or even development in vcnty thru 19/00Z.
LIFR ceilings SRB/CSV will slowly raise to VFR thresholds by
18/21Z. VFR ceilings expected CKV/BNA/MQY. MVFR fog possible
SRB/CSV 19/06Z-19/12Z. Sfc winds prevailing light N thru 19/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  66  88  70 /  30   0  10  20
Clarksville    84  61  84  65 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     80  58  82  63 /  50  10  50  40
Columbia       86  63  88  67 /  40  10  30  20
Cookeville     81  61  83  66 /  40   0  30  20
Jamestown      81  60  83  64 /  40   0  30  30
Lawrenceburg   84  63  87  67 /  50  10  40  20
Murfreesboro   87  63  89  68 /  30   0  30  20
Waverly        84  61  85  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....JB Wright