908
FXUS64 KOHX 181755 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The surface boundary has been making slow southeasterly progress
this morning with some light showers ahead of it. Behind the
front, winds have turned northerly with stratocu keeping the
temperatures in the 70s. Over the last hour some sunshine has
peeked out over Stewart and part of Montgomery counties. Some of
that sunshine will progress southeast through the afternoon. Along
with the sunshine, some lower dew points will also move in from
upstream. Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s.
Look for some of those reading in our northwest this afternoon.
Shower chances should clear our area this evening as the front
moves far enough south, but that will be temporary. A wave will
eject out of the deep south Friday morning pushing the boundary
back north and bringing the storms chances back with it. This will
not be areawide but mainly confined to the south and the plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long term forecast continues to look wet with temperatures
slightly below normal which is good news for our fresh drought
problem. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad
troughing with southwesterly flow in our area. The surface
boundary will lift back northward on Saturday and by Sunday the
front will be back north of the area with ample moisture streaming
into the area. The southwesterly upper flow continues into next
week with our area being on the western fringes of the Bermuda
high and some weak troughing to the north. This will leave us
unsettled with some small disturbances moving through the flow.
Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day through
the extended forecast. Shear will be weak each day, so no
organized severe threats are expected but rain will be heavy at
times. I know some locations missed out on yesterday`s rain, but
hopefully this pattern will help make up for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR Conditions are expected to prevail over the forecast period
after MVFR ceilings clear by 20Z. Any SHRA/TSRA development
should be south of any terminals. Think KSRB and potentially KCSV
have the risk of developing MVFR/IFR ceilings after 06Z, but
confidence isn`t high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  88  70  89 /   0  10  20  50
Clarksville    61  84  65  87 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     58  82  63  80 /  10  50  40  80
Columbia       63  88  67  88 /  10  30  20  60
Cookeville     61  83  66  82 /   0  30  20  70
Jamestown      60  83  64  80 /   0  30  30  70
Lawrenceburg   63  87  67  86 /  10  40  20  70
Murfreesboro   63  89  68  88 /   0  30  20  60
Waverly        61  85  65  87 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Hurley