039
FXUS64 KOHX 191728
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very pleasant start to the day today with lower temperatures and
much more comfortable humidity levels. Relative humidity values
across Middle Tennessee this morning are near 60% with
temperatures just now getting into the mid to upper 70s. Showers
have lingered around our south this morning, but QPE amounts
aren`t amounting to much with so much dry air aloft. A shortwave
trough is moving through the area today that will aid in lifting
the boundary currently over Alabama north. CAMs have struggled
capturing the northern extent of the moisture associated with the
boundary, thus have bumped PoP values up slightly for the near
term. For the remainder of today, shower and any thunderstorm
chances should largely be confined to the southern half of the
area as well as along the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures today
and tonight will be much closer to typical July readings with an
afternoon high of 87 at Nashville and lows in the upper 60s. Look
for rain to become more widespread Saturday as the aforementioned
boundary continues to move north through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The long term forecast features a wetter pattern with slightly below
average temperatures. Hopefully some drought relief will be found
over the next week. Our upper air pattern keeps troughing over the
majority of the Ohio Valley accompanied by southwesterly flow.
The southerly component will help bring more moisture back into
the area while the westerly component will help stream in a
series of disturbances through the week. No one day really stands
out for severe weather potential. Overall, shear and lapse rates
will be poor and not conducive for a widespread severe threat.
Tuesday is the only day that looks to have a bit better forcing as
global models are showing a cold front pushing through the area.
Model soundings do not look alarming, though. With all of this
being said, rain chances are in the forecast each day with
forecast rainfall totals between 1 to 2.5 inches for the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Some light shower activity is moving across the southern portions
of the mid-state, and may impact SRB and CSV later this afternoon.
Low-level moisture may allow for some MVFR to IFR fog development
at these sites overnight as calm winds are expected. For CKV,
BNA, and MQY light and variable winds can be expected as the
surface boundary just north of the showers sets up overnight, but
impacts to VIS or CIGS are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  89  72  89 /  20  60  40  60
Clarksville    67  86  68  86 /  10  30  20  30
Crossville     64  80  64  82 /  50  80  60  80
Columbia       67  89  69  89 /  20  60  50  60
Cookeville     66  83  66  84 /  40  70  60  70
Jamestown      65  81  65  82 /  40  80  50  70
Lawrenceburg   67  87  68  87 /  30  60  60  70
Murfreesboro   68  89  69  90 /  30  70  50  60
Waverly        67  87  67  87 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....05