849
FXUS64 KOHX 170221
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
921 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

All is quiet across the area this evening. It does not feel
pleasant with dew points in the low to mid 70s and temperatures
in the 80s. The forecast is going to become a bit more uncertain
as we head into the overnight and tomorrow. We will have a cold
front drop down from the north and that will bring showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow evening. The uncertainty is how widespread
convection will be mainly ahead of that front tonight and
tomorrow afternoon. If cells develop over KY over the next few
hours they will push south and then some of our northern counties
could get some thunderstorms mainly toward midnight lasting into
the overnight. Then tomorrow late morning into the afternoon a
short wave that is currently over KS will push east into our area
and that will likely bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Finally the front will push into the area during
the evening and will bring additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will last into tomorrow night.

Shear will be marginal in the northern part of the area tonight
but lapse rates don`t look great. This should limit severe weather
but still can`t rule out isolated strong wind gusts and some hail
with any of the stronger cells. We should get a break in
thunderstorms during the morning and that will help to destabilize
the atmosphere some. Shear does look a bit higher tomorrow but
still on the lower side for any organized convection. Similar with
lapse rates, better than tonight but still not great. Overall the
severe threat is low for tomorrow but still can`t rule out gusty
winds and some hail with any stronger cells. Heavy rain can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

There`s been quite a bit of cloud cover around this morning thanks
to yesterday`s Midwest MCS. An outflow boundary moved from north
to south this morning through the CWA with showers and storms
developing along and south of that boundary now from Perry to
Warren County. I will let the Heat Advisory limp along but it may
be a struggle reaching criteria for most of the area. Visible
satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a
couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in
the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105.

One thing we`ll need to watch this afternoon is for storm
development along the stationary boundary that is over eastern
Missouri into southern Indiana. Some storms could develop along
that and move south and eastward toward our northwestern
counties. The CAMS have been inconsistent in the development and
movement of this activity. If storms do develop and make a run for
our area, there will be ample CAPE available and the storms could
pose a damaging wind threat.

There should be a break in activity overnight before more storms
develop on Wednesday with a surface front draped over the area.
Shear will still be on the weak side on Wednesday but once again,
there will be ample instability. A couple storms may produce gusty
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The surface boundary will linger around the area on Thursday
continuing the storms chances across the area. The front will push
far enough south Thursday night to bring an end to the storm
chances for a day. Friday looks like the nicest day of the
forecast with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid
60s. There is a chance of an afternoon shower or storm Friday
afternoon but that will be confined along the southern plateau.
The front will creep back northwest on Saturday into Sunday
bringing back rain chances. Those scattered storm chances continue
into next week. Hopefully, most of the area can pick up an inch
or two through the next seven days to help put a small dent in
this flash drought. As far as temperatures, once we get past this
afternoon, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to perhaps
to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and storms currently affecting CSV/SRB will die off in
next couple of hours. VFR then expected at airports overnight
before VCSH impact CKV/BNA/MQY around sunrise with MVFR cigs at
CKV. Additional showers and storms are possible at airports late
in the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will increase
and become west/northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  92  73  87 /  30  80  60  40
Clarksville    74  86  70  83 /  50  80  70  20
Crossville     70  89  66  80 /  30  90  70  70
Columbia       74  94  71  86 /  20  70  60  60
Cookeville     72  89  69  80 /  40  90  70  50
Jamestown      70  87  67  79 /  40  90  70  50
Lawrenceburg   73  93  70  85 /  20  70  60  60
Murfreesboro   74  95  71  86 /  20  80  60  50
Waverly        73  88  70  82 /  20  70  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Shamburger