332
FXUS64 KOHX 170659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An unsettled weather pattern looks to become established across
mid state region through Thursday. However, CAMs, North American,
and global models differ on exact timing and areal coverage.
Currently monitoring a complex of showers and thunderstorms across
bisecting southern KY west to east. A few of the latest CAMs
showing some potential of this area slipping into northern
portions of mid state region as these early morning hours
progress, with others keeping current convection to our north.
Continued with previous forecast reasoning of isolated to
scattered pops for locations approaching the TN/KY border region
as these early morning hours progress. Looks like main convective
activity that will provide showers and thunderstorm chances to our
area will move in from the west as mid morning hours progress
today in association with a west to east moving shortwave passage
bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to mid region by mid
afternoon hours today. Model derived PW values showing brief
heavy rainfall potential with thunderstorms, but also showing
little atmospheric shear but can not totally rule out isolated
strong winds and small hail with the stronger thunderstorms, but
as of this time, not expecting any organized severe weather
concerns. One benefit of increased cloudiness and rainfall
potential will be on average slightly cooler afternoon high
temperatures with highs ranging generally upper 80s to lower 90s.

A surface cold front will approach mid state region early this
evening from our northwest and push southeastward through our
area during evening hours tonight. Expecting shower and
thunderstorm chances to continue through tonight as yet another
upper level shortwave moves west to east across our area. Surface
frontal passage will at least result in lows around seasonal
normal values tonight, ranging upper 60s to lower 70s, mid 60s
Cumberland Plateau Region.

Surface high pressure influences will build across northern Ohio
River Valley Region as day progresses on Thursday with above
mentioned surface front pushing into deep south. however, enough
post frontal moisture should linger across our area with more of
a zonal flow pattern developing aloft to support some subtle upper
level disturbance passages with best chances of showers and
thunderstorms across southern and eastern areas. If nothing else,
those high pressure influences to our north will try to usher in
some slightly cooler air to mid state region with highs on
Thursday only spanning the 80s. Total rainfall amounts through
Thursday will generally range from around 0.50 inch to
approaching 1.5 inches Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A break from the above mentioned unsettled weather pattern across
our area will occur Thursday night through Friday morning with dry
conditions prevailing as lows on Thursday night take a seasonably
cool plunge into the low to mid 60s, with even some upper 50s
across higher elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. However,
these dry conditions will be short lived especially for southern
and eastern portions of mid state region as a southwesterly aloft
flow pattern gets "cranking up." Dry conditions might continue to
prevail across central and western portions of our area through
potentially Saturday afternoon. However, as moisture continues to
work in from the south as deep south cold front reverses course
and moves northward back into our area as Saturday and meanders
across our area at least through Sunday night before pushing
northward as first part of next week progresses, and due to strong
upper level ridging developing off southeastern U.S. Atlantic
coastline, copious atmospheric moisture will stream across our
area through first half of next work week with generally scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again possible as high
temperatures generally remain in the 80s with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A slow-moving surface boundary currently situated just to the
north of Middle Tennessee will gradually make its way southward
during the next several hours, and we can expect widespread
convective development during the day Wednesday across the mid
state. The best chance for storms overall will be during the
afternoon. Look for the activity to taper off somewhat during the
evening as winds shift around to the W/NW with the passage of the
boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  72  87  65 /  80  60  40   0
Clarksville    86  68  84  61 /  80  60  20   0
Crossville     88  65  80  58 /  90  60  60  10
Columbia       92  70  87  63 /  80  60  50   0
Cookeville     87  68  80  61 /  90  60  40   0
Jamestown      86  66  80  59 /  90  70  40   0
Lawrenceburg   92  70  85  62 /  80  60  50  10
Murfreesboro   93  70  86  63 /  90  60  50   0
Waverly        87  68  84  61 /  80  60  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose