Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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018 FXUS63 KOAX 082028 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally pleasant, mostly dry conditions are expected through the work week. - Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weather across the forecast area this afternoon is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a northwest breeze generally less than 10 mph and scattered cumulus cloud cover. Forecast soundings and analysis indicate that the air in the sub cloud layer and in the mid troposphere are rather dry, thus limiting ability for deeper updrafts to develop. There have been one or two areas of very light reflectivity, but other than a short lived sprinkle, think the area should be mostly dry. Tuesday will be quite similar, and Wednesday as well, as the remnants of Beryl pass to our southeast. Tuesday will feature another low-end chance for sprinkles in the afternoon, while Wednesday may end up being a bit better chance owing to a short wave trough moving north to south and clipping the forecast area with some extra forcing. This may be sufficient to support a few storms, or even a convective complex (at the high end of the potential range of outcomes). Even Thursday into Friday looks similar in terms of overall weather, with low-end precip potential mainly in the afternoon hours. The one thing that we will see over the course of the week is a gradual warming trend...into the mid 80s for highs early in the week and pushing into the low 90s for a good chunk of the area by Friday. Getting into the weekend, the dominant western CONUS ridge will shift east a bit and extend into our region. Model guidance indicates 850 temps in the upper 20s to low 30s C with ample sunshine likely. This should lead to a period of higher end temperatures into the middle and upper 90s, seemingly hottest south and west. This is also the period of peak evapotranspiration in the area and thus expect a high likelihood of dewpoints in the middle 70s or higher. So, would expect heat index values greater than 100 and possibly quite a bit warmer, mainly for Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions with SCT to perhaps BKN clouds around 5000 feet AGL and a light northwest wind less than 10 kts will dominate through 01 UTC. After that time, skies clear, with winds becoming light and variable but predominantly out of the north. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Barjenbruch