Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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620 FXUS63 KOAX 082247 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 547 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally pleasant, mostly dry conditions are expected through the work week. - Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weather across the forecast area this afternoon is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a northwest breeze generally less than 10 mph and scattered cumulus cloud cover. Forecast soundings and analysis indicate that the air in the sub cloud layer and in the mid troposphere are rather dry, thus limiting ability for deeper updrafts to develop. There have been one or two areas of very light reflectivity, but other than a short lived sprinkle, think the area should be mostly dry. Tuesday will be quite similar, and Wednesday as well, as the remnants of Beryl pass to our southeast. Tuesday will feature another low-end chance for sprinkles in the afternoon, while Wednesday may end up being a bit better chance owing to a short wave trough moving north to south and clipping the forecast area with some extra forcing. This may be sufficient to support a few storms, or even a convective complex (at the high end of the potential range of outcomes). Even Thursday into Friday looks similar in terms of overall weather, with low-end precip potential mainly in the afternoon hours. The one thing that we will see over the course of the week is a gradual warming trend...into the mid 80s for highs early in the week and pushing into the low 90s for a good chunk of the area by Friday. Getting into the weekend, the dominant western CONUS ridge will shift east a bit and extend into our region. Model guidance indicates 850 temps in the upper 20s to low 30s C with ample sunshine likely. This should lead to a period of higher end temperatures into the middle and upper 90s, seemingly hottest south and west. This is also the period of peak evapotranspiration in the area and thus expect a high likelihood of dewpoints in the middle 70s or higher. So, would expect heat index values greater than 100 and possibly quite a bit warmer, mainly for Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Winds will generally stay under 10 knots and prevail out of the northwest at all TAF sites through tomorrow. A high pressure center will track across the area tonight, so there may be a period of time between 03Z and 12Z where winds will be truly calm (0 knots) or briefly (for 1-3 hours) shift to be southeasterly at 0-5 knots before a second high pressure system shifts winds out of the northwest again (by 12Z). There is enough model uncertainty to preclude inclusion of this wind shift in TAFs at this time, though there is a low probability of this occurring, hence its mention in the AFD. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Darrah