Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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423 FXUS63 KOAX 090722 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 222 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally pleasant, mostly dry conditions are expected through the work week. Highest rain chances will be Wednesday. - Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Outside of some patchy fog in IA early this morning, pretty quiet across the region with temperatures largely in the 60s as of 2 AM. An upper level trough axis stretched from the Great Lakes into central TX, with a ridge and resulting heat continuing to dominate the western CONUS. Meanwhile remnants of Beryl continued to spin across AR and will push northeast through the day today, keeping associated precip just to our southeast. However, much like the last couple days, guidance does suggest widespread cumulus development with potential for a few spotty showers or even isolated storms with HREF mean MUCAPE values just over 1000 J/kg. That said, soundings do reveal quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, so it seems unlikely that we`ll see much that persists for very long. A similar situation looks to pan out Wednesday, though some stronger shortwave energy will be sliding through from the northwest, clipping roughly the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. This should lead to a little more widespread shower and storm development, possibly starting during the morning as the shortwave first gets here. Guidance also suggests a little more instability to work with (HREF nearing 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE) indicating at least an outside shot for a stronger storm or 2, though this would seem more likely to our east where the stronger forcing will track. Thursday and Friday will be similar to early in the week with continued very spotty sprinkle/shower/isolated storm chances, but overall lack of forcing will limit coverage with both days seeing precip chances less than 10 percent. As we head into the weekend, the main story will become building heat with highs in the 90s starting to creep into the area Friday and then becoming widespread Saturday through Monday. The general idea is the ridge over the western CONUS will start to edge into the area with NAEFS guidance suggesting 850 mb temperatures of 25 to near 30 C, good for the 99th+ percentile of climatology at times. Mixing these down would suggest highs in the triple digits for many, but for what they`re worth this far out, model soundings show a little bit shallower mixing. Still, it`s looking hot. Plus, humidity will be on the increase with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s for many. As a result, expect heat index values in the triple digits, especially Sunday and Monday with at least a Heat Advisory looking likely at some point. By Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday, a surface boundary looks to sag south into the area, potentially bringing our next shot of precipitation, though still a fair amount of spread on how exactly that pans out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A high pressure system passing northwest of the region will help winds at all TAF sites veer from northwesterly to northerly to easterly. With the pressure center passing very close to TAF sites, wind speeds will generally be less than 5 knots. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Darrah