Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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344 FXUS63 KOAX 142308 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 608 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat continues into Monday, with heat index readings of 100 to 110+ degrees likely. - Widespread storm chances (20-40%) arrive Monday night and linger through Wednesday. Some storms may be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge continues to bring scorching heat to the Four Corners area as it deamplifies and stretches east. Under that ridge, the heat continues to build into the mid-Missouri River valley. NAEFS climatology indicates a 15-30 year return rate for H85 temps of this magnitude in mid-July. Almost all of the AWOS/ASOS sites in the forecast area have temps above 90F with heat indices pushing above 100F. Heat headlines are in place for the entire CWA through 8pm. The heat advisory will fall away then, but the excessive heat warning will remain in place for the southeastern half of the CWA including Lincoln and Omaha. While heat indices may fall shy of our 110 degree criteria for excessive heat warnings, the danger hinges in part on the lack of significant relief overnight. Most of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will see temps only briefly slip into the mid-70s. Homes without air conditioning will tend to hold heat overnight, adding additional stress to occupants. PoPs will remain low overnight, but not zero as a few of the convection allowing models are dragging an MCS from near the Bakken Formation in western North Dakota through SD and clipping northeast Nebraska tonight. Have added 20% PoPs over much of northeast Nebraska after midnight and on Monday morning. .MONDAY... More showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening with a "cool" front slipping through the area mid- day. Parameterized models aren`t producing much for convection here, keeping it generally northeast of Sioux City. Capping looks to be the reason. It`s worth mentioning that the models have been underforecasting dewpoints for the past few days (slow to pick up on the corn sweat). The NAM, for instance, has dewpoints near 73 on Monday afternoon when 75-79 is the more reasonable range. This will mean convection will be easier to develop than suggested by guidance. Four-thousand to 5,000 J/kg of CAPE means that any storm that does develop would have a lot to work with. Lapse rates from the surface to H5 will be over 8C/km and suggestive of a damaging wind threat. There are lots of question marks in eventual placement with a dry afternoon quite possible. Still, the "slight" convective category seems warranted over western Iowa. Heat will be mitigated by moderate cold air advection over the northern half of the CWA. Heat headlines remain in place over the southern 2/3 of the forecast area where heat indices of 100-113 degrees are forecast. Monday`s heat index forecast is a bit warmer than the one issued 24 hours ago due not to increased temperatures but higher dewpoints now forecast to peak in the mid-70s for many and upper 70s for western Iowa. Partly sunny skies are forecast, but increased cloud cover from potential convection would be a possible cooling mechanism. .TUESDAY AND BEYOND... The ridge retreats west allowing for an amplified pattern. Strong northwesterly flow over the the central CONUS will help keep temperatures cool and the pattern pointing any shortwaves directly at Omaha and Des Moines. Right now the best energy suggests timing of Wednesday and Saturday as best opportunities for a wetting rain. High temps will mostly be in the upper-70s to mid-80s for the rest of the work week and lingering into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. The night will begin with light southerly winds. There is a low chance of scattered light rain showers impacting KOFK in the 06-10Z timeframe. Low confidence in this occurrence has led to opting out of including the possibility in the TAFs at this time. A front moving through the area from north to south through the day Monday will shift winds clockwise from southerly to northeasterly. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms moves into the KOMA and KLNK area in the final hours of the forecast period. There is low confidence in the coverage of these storms, therefore it will be left for future TAF issuances. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050-065-078-088. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ015-033-034- 042>045-050-065-078-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ051>053- 066>068-089>093. IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for IAZ069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Wood