185
FXUS63 KOAX 201119
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Widespread rain chances continue today and into Sunday. There
  are additional spotty rain chances into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

There is some fog in northeast Nebraska, from Albion northward
toward Yankton. Visibility could range from 1 mile to less than
1/2 mile at times, and should begin to see improvement by 9 am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Water vapor imagery shows anti-cyclonic flow over the western
CONUS and a shortwave driving south across Iowa and Nebraska
responsible for a significant band of showers.

That band continues to push south across the area this morning
with meaningful rainfall totals of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch common
over the past 18 hours with 1.4" at Blair matching up with a
localized maximum on radar-estimated totals. The lightning and
thunder have basically wrapped up with only one cloud flash
detected in the past 5 minutes. Some patchy fog is forecast to
develop in northeast Nebraska before sunrise.

Will maintain 15-30 POPs basically south of I-80 through the
day - especially in the afternoon heating. The surface will heat
as the cyclonic flow above keeps H85 temps remain mostly
unchanged. As a result, low level lapse rates will soar but
with widespread cloud cover and little instability and shear the
severe threat is negligible.

High temps will be 10-20 degrees cooler than normal. If Omaha`s
forecast high of 74 verifies, today would be only the second
time over the past ten years that an Eppley high temp in late
July (15-31) didn`t manage at least 75.

.SUNDAY...

Sunday will be a near re-run of Saturday with highs peaking
only in the 70s and spotty light showers possible all day, but
likely wetting the most surfaces in the afternoon hours. If you
can avoid the heaviest showers, the day will be pleasant.

.NEXT WEEK...

The amplified ridge over the Rockies leads to northerly flow
continuing early next week with very little change expected in
the H5 pattern (omega-style blocking pattern). Spotty showers
and thunder are possible again on Monday, especially in the
afternoon as temperatures continue to slowly moderate. Monday`s
max temps will end up near 80. Let`s call Tuesday a transition
day that leans more toward Monday than Wednesday.

A drier pattern develops over the work week`s second half as the
ridge out west passes through the central CONUS. Regular
southerly flow should push temps close to 90 by Friday
afternoon. There`s still plenty of hot weather to go - summer
2024 is only halfway done.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Showers will be in the vicinity of KOMA at TAF issuance, and
could redevelop in the Lincoln vicinity by 15z, but not
confident enough that precipitation develops at KOFK. While
there could be thunder at KLNK/KOMA this afternoon, left it out
for now, and will amend TAFs later on if necessary. Otherwise,
MVFR ceilings at KOFK, and VFR conditions at KOMA/KLNK should
become MVFR by 15z, but then back to VFR by 21-23z. And then
MVFR conditions could develop again late tonight toward the end
of the TAF period at all locations.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald