191
FXUS63 KOAX 161113
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially in northeast Nebraska (30-50% chance of
  storms, 10-20% chance of severe storms). Most of the activity
  will remain to the west, but we`ll get clipped from 5 to 10
 PM, with hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  carry us into the weekend, with chances for widespread rain
  increasing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this morning features mid/upper ridging
diminishing over the central CONUS while clusters of storms continue
marching along from north-central Kansas to the mid-Mississippi
Vally into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a recent
analysis places a surface low over southwestern Kansas with
moisture pooled along it as it extends towards northern
Missouri, helping to increase instability for the aforementioned
storm cluster traversing the state. The main concern of the
forecast has shifted from the excessive heat to additional
chances for storms early this evening. By 21z, a strengthening
by relatively small boundary/low is expected to intensify in
north-central Nebraska in anticipation of an arriving mid-level
shortwave, with a bank of increased instability as moisture
pools along it. Effective shear values during the convective
activity and the low-level shear vectors point to a clustered
storm mode and upscale growth, with wind being the primary
hazard. Sufficient instability is in place for pockets of
quarter- sized hail the local surface low could provide some
smaller scale tornado threat, which will have to battle less-
than-desirable hodographs or low-level curvature therein. These
storms are expected to develop around 3-4 PM in north central
Nebraska, affecting portions of eastern into central Nebraska
as the grow upscale and move southeast. As of right now, the
consensus with the CAMs keeps the higher end wind threat just to
the west of the CWA border and into LBF/GID, but it`ll be a
close call before storms eventually fall apart by midnight.

Wednesday and Beyond:

For the remaining forecast period, cooler temperatures come to power
over the area, as northwesterly flow continues to take hold and
enters somewhat of a holding pattern. Over the course of the
remaining work week, mid/upper heights are slowly decreasing as high-
amplitude ridging takes hold over the western third of the CONUS.
We`ll enjoy cooler-than average temperatures in the 70s to low 80s,
with intermittent rain chances influenced by shortwaves lobbed
southward through the increasingly northerly flow. The best chances
for widespread, meaningful rainfall comes Friday evening into
the overnight hours as a more potent shortwave dives southward
across the area. Relatively weak surface and low-level winds
will limit deeper moisture transport, with any of the remaining
ingredients for severe convection largely staying relegated to
the High Plains. By Saturday and Sunday, deterministic models
seem to be in consensus that a increasingly separated mid-level
low will slow or stall over the region before picking back up to
the east by Monday next week. We`ll enjoy much cooler
temperatures if this pans out along with additional rainfall
that will help keep us from falling back into any drought,
something the entire forecast area kicked completely over the
last couple of weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period at all
TAF sites. There is a 40% chance of thunderstorms at KOFK after
21z through around 03z with the possibility of damaging winds
and large hail. Otherwise, mid/high clouds are likely at KOMA
and KLNK. Winds will be generally under 12kts from the
north/northeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Kern