![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
546 FXUS63 KOAX 202326 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue through this weekend before temperatures increase through next week. - Widespread rain chances continue today and into Sunday. There are additional spotty rain chances into the start of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Short Term (Today through Monday) Visible satellite this afternoon shows a band of showers stretching from eastern Oklahoma to southern Iowa, grazing the southeastern corner of our CWA. The current upper level pattern depicts a closed low over northern Ontario/Quebec and an omega blocking pattern over the western CONUS. As a result, much of the area resides in northwesterly upper level flow progressing towards northerly as the western ridge nudges eastward through the weekend. A shortwave slowly diving south from southwest Minnesota to IA/MO is responsible for the scattered rain showers seen across the area today. PoPs remain in the 20 to 30 percent range through this evening. Severe weather potential remains low as instability and shear across the area is meager, yet a couple lightning strikes will certainly be possible. Northeast Nebraska could see funnel development this afternoon as current surface analysis shows sufficient CAPE in the low levels and an enhanced area of vorticity thanks to the passing shortwave. Thick cloud cover into the afternoon and our northwesterly flow aloft will keep highs in the mid-70`s, much cooler than the climatological average. Showers will taper off into the overnight hours where light winds will be met with fog potential in the early morning. Sunday will see similar conditions to today. Highs will take a slight uptick to the upper 70s while mostly cloudy skies will persist. Scattered showers will be possible through Sunday, yet PoPs have decreased to the 10 to 20 percent range. Highs will continue their slow ascent into the lower 80s on Monday. The aforementioned shortwave will make its way into eastern Missouri on Monday, bringing us one last day of scattered showers (PoPs 20 to 35 percent). Long Term (Tuesday through Friday) Through next week, the aforementioned ridge will slowly push east into the Central Plains. As a result, we will see a progressive rise in temperatures back towards the seasonal average. Tuesday and Wednesday will see highs in the mid 80s while the end of the work week will push towards the upper 80s/low 90s. Tuesday could see some light showers in western Iowa as our current system departs before the rest of the week is met with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Isolated thunderstorms across northeast Nebraska (KOFK) are expected to weaken and dissipate by 03Z. Tonight, fog is expected to develop across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa (all TAF sites). Widespread MVFR visibilities of 3 to 5 miles is expected between 10Z and 14Z. There will also be the chance (50 to 60 percent) of temporary reductions in visibility of 1 to 2 miles at all TAF sites in the same time frame. LIFR visibilities are not out of the question, with the greatest potential (30 to 40 percent) at KOFK and KOMA between 11Z and 13Z. However, these probabilities are too low to include in TAFs at this time, but may be included in the 06Z issuance if confidence increases. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Darrah