Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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703 FXUS63 KOAX 180624 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 124 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will persist into next week. - Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into Sunday. There are additional spotty rain chances into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Short Term (Today) The current upper level pattern brings northwesterly flow to the region as we remain sandwiched between a positively tilted trough centered over Ontario/Quebec and a ridge over the western CONUS. Despite the southerly surface winds, high temperatures are expected to remain below average and hovering around 80 today. Skies should stay mostly clear today, making a perfect evening for some outdoor activities. Overnight lows will fall around 60 to continue this refreshing streak of below normal temperatures. Long Term (Friday through Wednesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible (PoPs 25-40%) Friday morning, primarily west of a line from Norfolk to Columbus, NE, as a weak disturbances pushes over central Nebraska. Highs on Friday will remain near 80. We could see some haze in the area Friday as wildfire smoke moves in from the western CONUS. The next chance for widespread precipitation will be Friday evening into Saturday (PoPs 60-80%) as a shortwave trough traverses the area. Severe weather potential remains low as the greatest axis of instability remains in western Nebraska. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will continue into Saturday afternoon (PoP 30-50%). High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to hit 75, greater than 10 degrees below our climatological average for mid July. Rainfall totals are expected in the 0.50 to 1" range. WPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Friday. Precipitation chances will continue into Sunday (PoPs 20-40%) as an upper level cutoff low spins over IA/MO. Rain chances should remain scattered with weak instability keeping severe weather potential low. Cool highs in the mid 70s will continue into Sunday. A similar story will be present on Monday with scattered rain chances (PoPs 20- 30%) across the area as the aforementioned cutoff low shifts towards the Great Lakes region. Next week, the upper level pattern is expected to consist of troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS, a typical look for the end of July. Temperatures are expected in the 80s with relatively calm weather besides a few precipitation chances as shortwaves pass by the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with some clouds at 5000-6000 ft developing by mid to late Thursday morning. Expect winds to remain light and generally easterly to southeasterly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...CA