931
FXUS63 KOAX 192357
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
657 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Widespread rain chances into Sunday with localized flooding
  possible, especially from this afternoon into Saturday. There
  are additional spotty rain chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.Late this afternoon and tonight:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates separate vorticity
maxima phasing across the Dakotas with an associated belt of
forcing for ascent contributing to the formation of a loosely
organized convective band stretching from northeast NE into
central NE as of 2 PM. Earlier storms over Cedar County remained
stationary and produced very heavy rainfall. But, now it
appears that an organizing cold pool is supporting slightly
faster storm motions across northeast NE. The inflow air mass to
the ongoing thunderstorms should continue to destabilize this
afternoon, allowing them to progress southeast through the area
this afternoon into evening. More organized severe weather
potential is expected to materialize to our southwest; however,
isolated occurrences of hail up to quarter size and/or wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest
storms. Heavy rainfall and potential flooding is also a concern,
as we have already seen today.

Some model data suggest that another round of showers and
thunderstorms will move into the area from the west/northwest
late this evening into tonight. Should that scenario unfold as
advertised, some potential would exist for a strong storm or two
capable of gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain.


.This weekend:

The 12z global models indicate the formation of a mid/upper-
level low over southern MN/northern IA Saturday with that
feature drifting southwest Saturday night into Sunday in
response to a strong vorticity lobe pivoting south through the
mid MO Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with those upper-
air features will support periodic shower and thunderstorm
activity with some potential for locally heavy rainfall due to
the slow-moving nature of any storms. Widespread clouds and
areas of precipitation will limit daytime heating with
seasonably cool highs in the 70s.


.Next week:

There is fairly good model agreement in early week troughing
from the Great Lakes through the mid MO Valley. However, by the
latter half of the work week, the models begin to diverge on
how quickly that feature shifts east of our area. As such, it
still appears that we will see continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday with greater
uncertainty in precipitation chances thereafter. In regard to
temperatures, it still appears we will start the week with
below-normal highs (in the 70s to low 80s) with near-normal
readings expected by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Fairly low confidence forecast with ongoing showers and isolated
storms continuing to diminish and exit, but guidance is split on
potential redevelopment early in the period. For now, handled
with a TEMPO -SHRA group at OMA and LNK, but can`t completely
rule out additional -TSRA. Then expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to
move in Saturday morning and linger through much of the day,
though guidance suggests scattering out or at least improvement
to VFR ceilings by late in the period at OFK and LNK. Could also
see a few hours of fog into Saturday morning. Expect some
spotty showers or isolated storms throughout the day, but
confidence in one directly impacting a TAF site is low. Outside
of storms, winds should remain southeasterly to easterly and
under 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA